A chemical engineer is interested in determining whether a certain trace impurity is present in a product. An experiment has a probability of .80 of detecting the impurity if it is present. The probability of not detecting the impurity if it is absent is .90. The prior probabilities of the impurity being present and being absent are .40 and .60, respectively. Three separate experiments result in only two detections. What is the posterior probability that the impurity is present?

College Algebra
10th Edition
ISBN:9781337282291
Author:Ron Larson
Publisher:Ron Larson
Chapter8: Sequences, Series,and Probability
Section8.7: Probability
Problem 11ECP: A manufacturer has determined that a machine averages one faulty unit for every 500 it produces....
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A chemical engineer is interested in determining whether a
certain trace impurity is present in a product. An experiment
has a probability of .80 of detecting the impurity if it is
present. The probability of not detecting the impurity if it is
absent is .90. The prior probabilities of the impurity being
present and being absent are .40 and .60, respectively. Three
separate experiments result in only two detections. What is
the posterior probability that the impurity is present?

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