A doctor is called to see a sick child. In the neighborhood is known that: 80% of sick children have flu, and 20% of sick children have measles, so that P(F)=0.80 and P(M)=0.20 Let F = event of a child being sick with flu; M = event of a child being sick with measles. Assume for simplicity that there no other sickness among in that neighborhood, besides flu and measles. A well-known symptom of measles is a rash (the event of having which we denote R). Assume that the probability of having a rash if one has measles is P(R | M) = 0.95. However, %3D occasionally children with flu also develop rash, and the probability of having a rash if one has flu is P(R | F) = 0.08. Upon examining the child, the doctor finds a rash. What is the probability that %3D the child has measles? O 0.2540 O 0.8 0.95 O 0.7480

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A doctor is called to see a sick child. In the neighborhood is known that:
80% of sick children have flu, and 20% of sick children have measles, so that P(F)=D0.80 and
P(M)=0.20
Let F = event of a child being sick with flu; M = event of a child being sick with measles.
%3D
%3D
Assume for simplicity that there no other sickness among in that neighborhood, besides flu and
measles. A well-known symptom of measles is a rash (the event of having which we denote R).
Assume that the probability of having a rash if one has measles is P(R | M) = 0.95. However,
occasionally children with flu also develop rash, and the probability of having a rash if one has flu
is P(R | F) = 0.08. Upon examining the child, the doctor finds a rash. What is the probability that
the child has measles?
O 0.2540
O 0.8
O 0.95
O 0.7480
Transcribed Image Text:A doctor is called to see a sick child. In the neighborhood is known that: 80% of sick children have flu, and 20% of sick children have measles, so that P(F)=D0.80 and P(M)=0.20 Let F = event of a child being sick with flu; M = event of a child being sick with measles. %3D %3D Assume for simplicity that there no other sickness among in that neighborhood, besides flu and measles. A well-known symptom of measles is a rash (the event of having which we denote R). Assume that the probability of having a rash if one has measles is P(R | M) = 0.95. However, occasionally children with flu also develop rash, and the probability of having a rash if one has flu is P(R | F) = 0.08. Upon examining the child, the doctor finds a rash. What is the probability that the child has measles? O 0.2540 O 0.8 O 0.95 O 0.7480
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