To be done in excel 19-6. Given the following decision table:States of NatureS₁ S₂ S3Alternatives A₁17045 -60100A₂30190 175-65A3145 -50 120110A4-40801070a. Use the maximax criterion to determine whichdecision alternative to select.b. Use the maximin criterion to determine whichdecision alternative to select.c. Use the minimax regret criterion to determinewhich decision alternative to select.19-7. The probabilities assessed with the states of naturein the previous problem areP(S₁) = 0.1, P(S₂) = 0.2, P(S3) = 0.4, P(S) = 0.3Using these probabilities, determine which alterna-tive to select using the expected-value criterion.Business Applications19-8. Larry Jacava is considering producing a noveltyitem for golfers that will be sold through pro shops.Larry has decided on a selling price of $3.50 forthe item. The item's variable cost of production is$2.00 per unit, with fixed costs of $3,750. Larryhas marketed his product to local pro shops andbelieves the demand for the item will be either2,000 units, 3,000 units, 4,000 units, or 5,000 units.a. Set up the payoff table for Larry's decision.b. Determine the number of units that Larry shouldproduce using each of the following criteria:1. maximax criterion2. maximin criterion3. minimax regret criterion19-9. Sal De Carlo is the manager for food sales forCoyote Stadium. For each home game, Sal mustdecide how many hot dogs to have available forsale. The number of hot dogs sold depends on thegame's attendance. Sal pays $0.75 for each hot dogand $0.15 for each hot dog bun. Hot dogs are soldto fans during the game for $1.75. Any leftover hotS4

Decision theory is a technique that helps to reach the users to the best alternative after deep…

Answered: a. Use the maximax criterion to…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Section9.2: Elements Of Decision Analysis

Problem 2P

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In Example 11.1, the possible profits vary from negative to positive for each of the 10 possible bids examined. a. For each of these, use @RISKs RISKTARGET function to find the probability that Millers profit is positive. Do you believe these results should have any bearing on Millers choice of bid? b. Use @RISKs RISKPERCENTILE function to find the 10th percentile for each of these bids. Can you explain why the percentiles have the values you obtain?
When you use a RISKSIMTABLE function for a decision variable, such as the order quantity in the Walton model, explain how this provides a fair comparison across the different values tested.
Suppose that a decision is faced with three decision alternatives and four states of nature.The following profit payoff table is constructed: ALTERNATIVES STATE OF NATURE S1 S2 S3 S4 A1 18 12 15 8 A2 15 14 10 11 A3 13 16 19 15 Assuming that the decision maker has no knowledge about the probabilities of occurrenceof the four states of nature, find the decisions to be recommended under each of thefollowing criteria:i. Maximin criterionii. Maximax criterioniii. Minimax Reject criterioniv. Hurwicz criterion with α = 0.6
A decision table describes results associated with which of the following A) Two decision variables B) One decision variable and one uncertain variable C) Two uncertain variables D) None of the above
1. Problem 13-14 (Algorithmic)The following profit payoff table shows profit for a decision analysis problem with two decision alternatives and three states of nature:State of NatureDecision Alternative S1 S2 S3d1 200 150 75d2 250 150 50The probabilities for the states of nature are P(s1) = 0.5, P(s2) = 0.3 and P(s3) = 0.2.a. What is the optimal decision strategy if perfect information was available? S1 : d2 S2 : d1 or d2 S3 : d1 b. c. What is the expected value for the decision strategy developed in part (a)? If required, round your answer to one decimal place. d. Using the expected value approach, what is the recommended decision without perfect information? d2 What is its expected value? If required, round your answer to one decimal place. e. What is the expected value of perfect information? If required, round your answer to one decimal place.
3. Using the following table, perform ALL FIVE of the techniques for Decision Making under Uncertainty: Maximax, Maximin, Hurwicz Realism (α = 0.4), LaPlace and Minimax Regret. Show the work on excel file. SIZE OF FIRST STATION GOOD MARKET FAIR MARKET POOR MARKET ($) ($) ($) Small 50,000 20,000 -10,000 Medium 80,000 30,000 -20,000 Large 100,000 30,000 -40,000 Very large 300,000 25,000 -160,000
9. A decision-maker has two alternative courses of action, A1 and A2. There are three possible states of nature, S1, S2, and S3. The table of conditional profits, as well as the probabilities for the states of nature, appear below. Based on this decision table, which decision alternative produces the higher EMV? States of Nature Alternatives S1 S2 S3 A1 10,000 20,000 6,000 A2 5,000 30,000 15,000 Probability 0.3 0.5 0.2 Part 2 The best decision is ▼ a. alternative Upper A 1alternative A1 b. alternative Upper A 2alternative A2 , with an EMV=$________(enter your response as a whole number).
4. Spears Rowbuck has recorded the following sales figures. Calculate the seasonal indices for Thursday and Friday. Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Monday 43 51 40 66.0 Tuesday 45 41 57 58.6 Wednesday 22 37 30 34.7 Thursday 25 22 33 36.7 Friday 31 25 37 25.0 a. Thursday = 29.18, Friday = 29.50 b. Thursday = 0.2074, Friday = 1.1632 c. None of the other options. d. Thursday = 0.7678, Friday = 0.7763 e. Thursday = 0.6142, Friday = 0.6211
8-2 (Investment decision problem) The Heinlein and Krampf Brokerage firm has just been instructed by one of its clients to invest $250,000 of her money obtained recently through the sale of land holdings in Ohio. The client has a good deal of trust in the investment house, but she also has her own ideas about the distribution of the funds being invested. In particular, she requests that the firm select whatever stocks and bonds they believe are well rated but within the following guidelines: Municipal bonds should constitute at least 20% of the investment. At least 40% of the funds should be placed in a combination of electronic firms, aerospace firms, and drug manufacturers. No more than 50% of the amount invested in municipal bonds should be placed in a high-risk, high-yield nursing home stock. Use Solver to solve the problem. You need to have one Excel sheet with the problem setup and another sheet with Solver solution subject to these restraints, the client’s goal…
2. Using the following table, perform ALL FIVE of the techniques for decision-making under Uncertainty: Maximax, Maximin, Hurwicz Realism (α = 0.7), LaPlace, and Minimax Regret. Show the work on an Excel File. PROFIT ($) STRONG MARKET FAIR MARKET POOR MARKET Large facility 550,000 110,000 -310,000 Medium-sized facility 300,000 129,000 -100,000 Small facility 200,000 100,000 -32,000 No facility 0 0 0
1. Suppose you are going on a weekend trip to a city that is d miles away. Develop a model that determines your round-trip gasoline costs. What assumptions or approximations are necessary to treat this model as a deterministic model? Are these assumptions or approximations acceptable to you? 2. Suppose that a manager has a choice between the following two mathematical models of a given situation: (a)a relatively simple model that is a reasonable approximation of the real situation, and (b)a thorough and complex model that is the most accurate mathematical representation of the real situation possible. Why might the model described in part (a) be preferred by the manager?
We have $1,000 to invest. All the money must be placedin one of three investments: gold, stock, or money marketcertificates. If $1,000 is placed in an investment, the valueof the investment one year from now depends on the stateof the economy (see Table 16). Assume that each state of the economy is equally likely. For each of the followingdecision criteria, determine the optimal decision:a maximinb maximaxc minimax regretd expected value Value of $1,000 State 1 State 2 State 3Money marketcertificate $1,100 $1,100 $1,100Stock $1,000 $1,100 $1,200Gold $1,600 $300 $1,400

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a. Use the maximax criterion to determine which decision alternative to select. b. Use the maximin criterion to determine which decision alternative to select. c. Use the minimax regret criterion to determine which decision alternative to select.