An analyst estimates there is a probability of 22 percent that there will be a recession next year. He thinks the probability of things being normal is three times the probability of a recession, with the remaining probability assigned to a boom taking place. A stock is expected to return -18 percent in a recession, 9 percent under normal conditions and 22 percent if there is a boom. What is the expected return (in percent) on this stock? Answer to two decimals, carry intermediate calcs. to four decimals.

EBK CONTEMPORARY FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
14th Edition
ISBN:9781337514835
Author:MOYER
Publisher:MOYER
Chapter8: Analysis Of Risk And Return
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 15P
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An analyst estimates there is a probability of 22 percent that there will be a recession next year. He
thinks the probability of things being normal is three times the probability of a recession, with the
remaining probability assigned to a boom taking place. A stock is expected to return -18 percent in a
recession, 9 percent under normal conditions and 22 percent if there is a boom. What is the expected
return (in percent) on this stock? Answer to two decimals, carry intermediate calcs. to four decimals.
Transcribed Image Text:An analyst estimates there is a probability of 22 percent that there will be a recession next year. He thinks the probability of things being normal is three times the probability of a recession, with the remaining probability assigned to a boom taking place. A stock is expected to return -18 percent in a recession, 9 percent under normal conditions and 22 percent if there is a boom. What is the expected return (in percent) on this stock? Answer to two decimals, carry intermediate calcs. to four decimals.
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