An investigative bureau uses a laboratory method to match the lead in a bullet found at a crime scene with unexpended lead cartridges found in the possession of a suspect. The value of his evidence depends on the chance of a false positive-that is, the probability that the bureau finds a match, given that the lead at the crime scene and the lead in the possession of the suspect are actually from two different "melts," or sources. To estimate the false positive rate, the bureau collected 1,809 bullets that the agency was confident all came from different melts. Then, using its established criteria, the bureau examined every possible pair of bullets and found 606 matches. Use this information to compute the chance of a false positive. Is this probability small enough for you to have confidence in the agency's forensic evidence? Choose the correct answer below and fill in the answer box to complete your choice. Round to four decimal places as needed.) O A. The chance of a false positive is Because this probability is not sufficiently small (> 1%), there are concerns with the confidence in the agency's forensic evidence. O B. The chance of a false positive is %. Because this probability is sufficiently small (s 1%), there is high confidence in the agency's forensic evidence.
An investigative bureau uses a laboratory method to match the lead in a bullet found at a crime scene with unexpended lead cartridges found in the possession of a suspect. The value of his evidence depends on the chance of a false positive-that is, the probability that the bureau finds a match, given that the lead at the crime scene and the lead in the possession of the suspect are actually from two different "melts," or sources. To estimate the false positive rate, the bureau collected 1,809 bullets that the agency was confident all came from different melts. Then, using its established criteria, the bureau examined every possible pair of bullets and found 606 matches. Use this information to compute the chance of a false positive. Is this probability small enough for you to have confidence in the agency's forensic evidence? Choose the correct answer below and fill in the answer box to complete your choice. Round to four decimal places as needed.) O A. The chance of a false positive is Because this probability is not sufficiently small (> 1%), there are concerns with the confidence in the agency's forensic evidence. O B. The chance of a false positive is %. Because this probability is sufficiently small (s 1%), there is high confidence in the agency's forensic evidence.
Chapter8: Sequences, Series,and Probability
Section8.7: Probability
Problem 11ECP: A manufacturer has determined that a machine averages one faulty unit for every 500 it produces....
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Transcribed Image Text:An investigative bureau uses a laboratory method to match the lead in a bullet found at a crime scene with unexpended lead cartridges found in the possession of a suspect. The value of
this evidence depends on the chance of a false positive-that is, the probability that the bureau finds a match, given that the lead at the crime scene and the lead in the possession of the
suspect are actually from two different "melts," or sources. To estimate the false positive rate, the bureau collected 1,809 bullets that the agency was confident all came from different
melts. Then, using its established criteria, the bureau examined every possible pair of bullets and found 606 matches. Use this information to compute the chance of a false positive. Is this
probability small enough for you to have confidence in the agency's forensic evidence?
Choose the correct answer below and fill in the answer box to complete your choice.
(Round to four decimal places as needed.)
O A. The chance of a false positive is %. Because this probability is not sufficiently small (> 1%), there are concerns with the confidence in the agency's forensic evidence.
O B. The chance of a false positive is %. Because this probability is sufficiently small (s 1%), there is high confidence in the agency's forensic evidence
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