Consider a portion of monthly return data (In %) on 20-year Treasury Bonds from 2006–2010. Date Return Jan-06 5.12 Feb-06 4.14 ⋮ ⋮ Dec-10 5.47 Date Return Jan-06 5.12 Feb-06 4.14 Mar-06 4.68 Apr-06 5.25 May-06 5.35 Jun-06 3.64 Jul-06 4.68 Aug-06 4.65 Sep-06 3.55 Oct-06 3.55 Nov-06 4.3 Dec-06 3.54 Jan-07 3.8 Feb-07 3.98 Mar-07 4.33 Apr-07 4.69 May-07 5.37 Jun-07 4.74 Jul-07 5.17 Aug-07 3.22 Sep-07 4.97 Oct-07 5.13 Nov-07 3.35 Dec-07 3.86 Jan-08 4.06 Feb-08 4.64 Mar-08 4.83 Apr-08 5.06 May-08 5.46 Jun-08 5.22 Jul-08 4.29 Aug-08 4.79 Sep-08 5.45 Oct-08 4.85 Nov-08 3.54 Dec-08 4.9 Jan-09 3.6 Feb-09 4.48 Mar-09 3.51 Apr-09 3.72 May-09 4.24 Jun-09 4.36 Jul-09 5.17 Aug-09 3.25 Sep-09 4.74 Oct-09 5.03 Nov-09 5.44 Dec-09 3.55 Jan-10 4.21 Feb-10 5.27 Mar-10 5.07 Apr-10 3.7 May-10 4.65 Jun-10 4.21 Jul-10 4.38 Aug-10 4.29 Sep-10 4.93 Oct-10 4.48 Nov-10 3.32 Dec-10 5.47 Estimate a linear trend model with seasonal dummy variables to make forecasts for the first three months of 2011. Year Month ŷt 2011 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar
Consider a portion of monthly return data (In %) on 20-year Treasury Bonds from 2006–2010.
| Date | Return |
| Jan-06 | 5.12 |
| Feb-06 | 4.14 |
| ⋮ | ⋮ |
| Dec-10 | 5.47 |
Date Return
Jan-06 5.12
Feb-06 4.14
Mar-06 4.68
Apr-06 5.25
May-06 5.35
Jun-06 3.64
Jul-06 4.68
Aug-06 4.65
Sep-06 3.55
Oct-06 3.55
Nov-06 4.3
Dec-06 3.54
Jan-07 3.8
Feb-07 3.98
Mar-07 4.33
Apr-07 4.69
May-07 5.37
Jun-07 4.74
Jul-07 5.17
Aug-07 3.22
Sep-07 4.97
Oct-07 5.13
Nov-07 3.35
Dec-07 3.86
Jan-08 4.06
Feb-08 4.64
Mar-08 4.83
Apr-08 5.06
May-08 5.46
Jun-08 5.22
Jul-08 4.29
Aug-08 4.79
Sep-08 5.45
Oct-08 4.85
Nov-08 3.54
Dec-08 4.9
Jan-09 3.6
Feb-09 4.48
Mar-09 3.51
Apr-09 3.72
May-09 4.24
Jun-09 4.36
Jul-09 5.17
Aug-09 3.25
Sep-09 4.74
Oct-09 5.03
Nov-09 5.44
Dec-09 3.55
Jan-10 4.21
Feb-10 5.27
Mar-10 5.07
Apr-10 3.7
May-10 4.65
Jun-10 4.21
Jul-10 4.38
Aug-10 4.29
Sep-10 4.93
Oct-10 4.48
Nov-10 3.32
Dec-10 5.47
Estimate a linear trend model with seasonal dummy variables to make
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