During a power blackout, 100 persons were arrested on suspicion of looting. Each person is made to take a polygraph test. From past experience, it is known that the polygraph is 90% reliable when administered to a guilty suspect and 98% reliable when given to someone who is innocent. Suppose that of the 100 persons taken into custody, only twelve were actually involved in any wrongdoing. What is the probability that a given suspect is innocent given that the polygraph says he is guilty?

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