Forrest and Dan make boxes of chocolates for which the demand is uncertain. Forrest says, “That’s life.” On the other hand, Dan believes that some demand patterns exist that could be useful for planning the purchase of sugar, chocolate, and shrimp. Forrest insists on placing a surprise chocolatecovered shrimp in some boxes so that “You never know what you’ll get.” Quarterly demand (in boxes of chocolates) for the last 3 years follows: Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 1 2 3 4 3,000 1,700 900 4,400 3,300 2,100 1,500 5,100 3,502 2,448 1,768 5,882 Total 10,000 12,000 13,600 a. Use intuition and judgment to estimate quarterly demand for the fourth year.b. If the expected sales for chocolates are 14,800 cases for year 4, use the multiplicative seasonal method to prepare a forecast for each quarter of the year. Are any of the quarterly forecasts different from what you thought you would get in part (a)?
Forrest and Dan make boxes of chocolates for which the demand is uncertain. Forrest says, “That’s life.” On the other hand, Dan believes that some demand patterns exist that could be useful for planning the purchase of sugar, chocolate, and shrimp. Forrest insists on placing a surprise chocolatecovered shrimp in some boxes so that “You never know what you’ll get.” Quarterly demand (in boxes of chocolates) for the last 3 years follows:
| Quarter | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
|
1 2 3 4 |
3,000 1,700 900 4,400 |
3,300 2,100 1,500 5,100 |
3,502 2,448 1,768 5,882 |
|
Total |
10,000 |
12,000 |
13,600 |
a. Use intuition and judgment to estimate quarterly demand for the fourth year.
b. If the expected sales for chocolates are 14,800 cases for year 4, use the multiplicative seasonal method to prepare a
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