HMO has 40 doctors to be apportioned among four clinics. The HMO decides to apportion the doctors based on the average weekly patient load for each clinic, given in the following table. Clinic A D Average Weekly 275 392 611 724 Patient Load Find the apportion of A and C using using Adam's Method. Use modified divisor 52. Doctors for clinic A = Doctors for clinic B = %3D Doctors for clinic C= Doctors for clinic D =
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- You want to take out a 450,000 loan on a 20-year mortgage with end-of-month payments. The annual rate of interest is 3%. Twenty years from now, you will need to make a 50,000 ending balloon payment. Because you expect your income to increase, you want to structure the loan so at the beginning of each year, your monthly payments increase by 2%. a. Determine the amount of each years monthly payment. You should use a lookup table to look up each years monthly payment and to look up the year based on the month (e.g., month 13 is year 2, etc.). b. Suppose payment each month is to be the same, and there is no balloon payment. Show that the monthly payment you can calculate from your spreadsheet matches the value given by the Excel PMT function PMT(0.03/12,240, 450000,0,0).The method for rating teams in Example 7.8 is based on actual and predicted point spreads. This method can be biased if some teams run up the score in a few games. An alternative possibility is to base the ratings only on wins and losses. For each game, you observe whether the home team wins. Then from the proposed ratings, you predict whether the home team will win. (You predict the home team will win if the home team advantage plus the home teams rating is greater than the visitor teams rating.) You want the ratings such that the number of predictions that match the actual outcomes is maximized. Try modeling this. Do you run into difficulties? (Remember that Solver doesnt like IF functions.) EXAMPLE 7.8 RATING NFL TEAMS9 We obtained the results of the 256 regular-season NFL games from the 2015 season (the 2016 season was still ongoing as we wrote this) and entered the data into a spreadsheet, shown at the bottom of Figure 7.38. See the file NFL Ratings Finished.xlsx. (Some of these results are hidden in Figure 7.38 to conserve space.) The teams are indexed 1 to 32, as shown at the top of the sheet. For example, team 1 is Arizona, team 2 is Atlanta, and so on. The first game entered (row 6) is team 19 New England versus team 25 Pittsburgh, played at New England. New England won the game by a score of 28 to 21, and the point spread (home team score minus visitor team score) is calculated in column J. A positive point spread in column J means that the home team won; a negative point spread indicates that the visiting team won. The goal is to determine a set of ratings for the 32 NFL teams that most accurately predicts the actual outcomes of the games played.Another way to derive a demand function is to break the market into segments and identify a low price, a medium price, and a high price. For each of these prices and market segments, we ask company experts to estimate product demand. Then we use Excels trend curve fitting capabilities to fit a quadratic function that represents that segments demand function. Finally, we add the segment demand curves to derive an aggregate demand curve. Try this procedure for pricing a candy bar. Assume the candy bar costs 0.55 to produce. The company plans to charge between 1.10 and 1.50 for this candy bar. Its marketing department estimates the demands shown in the file P07_47.xlsx (in thousands) in the three regions of the country where the candy bar will be sold. What is the profit-maximizing price, assuming that the same price will be charged in all three regions?
- Based on Grossman and Hart (1983). A salesperson for Fuller Brush has three options: (1) quit, (2) put forth a low level of effort, or (3) put forth a high level of effort. Suppose for simplicity that each salesperson will sell 0, 5000, or 50,000 worth of brushes. The probability of each sales amount depends on the effort level as described in the file P07_71.xlsx. If a salesperson is paid w dollars, he or she regards this as a benefit of w1/2 units. In addition, low effort costs the salesperson 0 benefit units, whereas high effort costs 50 benefit units. If a salesperson were to quit Fuller and work elsewhere, he or she could earn a benefit of 20 units. Fuller wants all salespeople to put forth a high level of effort. The question is how to minimize the cost of encouraging them to do so. The company cannot observe the level of effort put forth by a salesperson, but it can observe the size of his or her sales. Thus, the wage paid to the salesperson is completely determined by the size of the sale. This means that Fuller must determine w0, the wage paid for sales of 0; w5000, the wage paid for sales of 5000; and w50,000, the wage paid for sales of 50,000. These wages must be set so that the salespeople value the expected benefit from high effort more than quitting and more than low effort. Determine how to minimize the expected cost of ensuring that all salespeople put forth high effort. (This problem is an example of agency theory.)Although the normal distribution is a reasonable input distribution in many situations, it does have two potential drawbacks: (1) it allows negative values, even though they may be extremely improbable, and (2) it is a symmetric distribution. Many situations are modelled better with a distribution that allows only positive values and is skewed to the right. Two of these that have been used in many real applications are the gamma and lognormal distributions. @RISK enables you to generate observations from each of these distributions. The @RISK function for the gamma distribution is RISKGAMMA, and it takes two arguments, as in =RISKGAMMA(3,10). The first argument, which must be positive, determines the shape. The smaller it is, the more skewed the distribution is to the right; the larger it is, the more symmetric the distribution is. The second argument determines the scale, in the sense that the product of it and the first argument equals the mean of the distribution. (The mean in this example is 30.) Also, the product of the second argument and the square root of the first argument is the standard deviation of the distribution. (In this example, it is 3(10=17.32.) The @RISK function for the lognormal distribution is RISKLOGNORM. It has two arguments, as in =RISKLOGNORM(40,10). These arguments are the mean and standard deviation of the distribution. Rework Example 10.2 for the following demand distributions. Do the simulated outputs have any different qualitative properties with these skewed distributions than with the triangular distribution used in the example? a. Gamma distribution with parameters 2 and 85 b. Gamma distribution with parameters 5 and 35 c. Lognormal distribution with mean 170 and standard deviation 60Referring to Example 11.1, if the average bid for each competitor stays the same, but their bids exhibit less variability, does Millers optimal bid increase or decrease? To study this question, assume that each competitors bid, expressed as a multiple of Millers cost to complete the project, follows each of the following distributions. a. Triangular with parameters 1.0, 1.3, and 2.4 b. Triangular with parameters 1.2, 1.3, and 2.2 c. Use @RISKs Define Distributions window to check that the distributions in parts a and b have the same mean as the original triangular distribution in the example, but smaller standard deviations. What is the common mean? Why is it not the same as the most likely value, 1.3?