It’s never lupus. Lupus is a medical phenomenon where antibodies that are supposed to attack foreign cells to prevent infections instead see plasma proteins as foreign bodies, leading to a high risk of blood clotting. It is believed that 2% of the population suffer from this disease. The test is 98% accurate if a person actually has the disease. The test is 74% accurate if a person does not have the disease. 1. Draw a tree diagram of the scenario described above including all appropriate notation 2. What is the probability that a person has lupus and tests positive for the disease? 3. There is a line from the Fox television show House that is often used after a patient tests positive for lupus: ’It’s never lupus.’ Do you think there is truth to this statement?
It’s never lupus. Lupus is a medical phenomenon where antibodies that are supposed to attack foreign
cells to prevent infections instead see plasma proteins as foreign bodies, leading to a high risk of blood
clotting. It is believed that 2% of the population suffer from this disease. The test is 98% accurate if a
person actually has the disease. The test is 74% accurate if a person does not have the disease.
1. Draw a tree diagram of the scenario described above including all appropriate notation
2. What is the probability that a person has lupus and tests positive for the disease?
3. There is a line from the Fox television show House that is often used after a patient tests positive for lupus: ’It’s never lupus.’ Do you think there is truth to this statement?
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