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Understanding Business

12th Edition

ISBN:9781259929434

Author:William Nickels

Publisher:William Nickels

Chapter1: Taking Risks And Making Profits Within The Dynamic Business Environment

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 1CE

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Please dont cancel please solve All. Exercise 4 - Black Swan Events Background: You know that a black swan event is characterized by three common elements: 1. The event is a surprise to the vast majority of observers, almost everyone. 2. The event has major impact. 3. Rationalization emerges by hindsight, as if it should have been anticipated. Actions Required and Questions to answer: 1. Should lack of preparation for black swan events be viewed as lapse of responsibility in our role as PMs? 2. Is it possible to have a beneficial black swan event that helps a project? If so, give some examples. 3. While black swans cannot be accurately predicted (which is why they are black swans to being with), it’s interesting to try to imagine a future event that could disrupt a given project, sometimes forever in the sense that the project may never get completed. Below are brief descriptions of large projects. Suggest plausible black swan events that could disrupt these projects, outlining probable impacts on the triple constraint for each: I. IMAGINARY PROJECT 1: Production and release of a major Hollywood movie, anticipated by millions of fans. POSSIBLE BLACK SWAN EVENT (you make it up – explain what happens): DESCRIBE POSSIBLE PROJECT IMPACT: II. IMAGINARY PROJECT 2: Moving a popular major league sports team from one city to another. POSSIBLE BLACK SWAN EVENT (you make it up – explain what happens): DESCRIBE POSSIBLE PROJECT IMPACT: III. IMAGINARY PROJECT 3: Significant construction project, building apartment buildings for new renters in San Francisco. POSSIBLE BLACK SWAN EVENT (you make it up – explain what happens): DESCRIBE POSSIBLE PROJECT IMPACT:

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