Problem 3. Suppose a test for detecting a certain rare disease has been perfected that is capable of discovering the disease in 97% of all afflicted individuals. Suppose further that when it is tried on healthy individuals, 5% of them are incorrectly diagnosed as having the disease. Finally, suppose that when it is tried on individuals who have certain other milder diseases, 10% of them are incorrectly diagnosed. It is known that the percentages of individuals of the three types being considered here in the populations at large are 1%, 96%, and 3%, respectively. Calculate the probability that an individual, selected at random from the population at large and tested for the rare disease, actually has the disease if the test indicates he is so afflicted.
Problem 3. Suppose a test for detecting a certain rare disease has been perfected that is capable of discovering the disease in 97% of all afflicted individuals. Suppose further that when it is tried on healthy individuals, 5% of them are incorrectly diagnosed as having the disease. Finally, suppose that when it is tried on individuals who have certain other milder diseases, 10% of them are incorrectly diagnosed. It is known that the percentages of individuals of the three types being considered here in the populations at large are 1%, 96%, and 3%, respectively. Calculate the probability that an individual, selected at random from the population at large and tested for the rare disease, actually has the disease if the test indicates he is so afflicted.
Linear Algebra: A Modern Introduction
4th Edition
ISBN:9781285463247
Author:David Poole
Publisher:David Poole
Chapter7: Distance And Approximation
Section7.1: Inner Product Spaces
Problem 14AEXP
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Problem 3. Suppose a test for detecting a certain rare disease has been perfected that is capable of discovering the disease in 97% of all afflicted individuals. Suppose further that when it is tried on healthy individuals, 5% of them are incorrectly diagnosed as having the disease. Finally, suppose that when it is tried on individuals who have certain other milder diseases, 10% of them are incorrectly diagnosed. It is known that the percentages of individuals of the three types being considered here in the populations at large are 1%, 96%, and 3%, respectively. Calculate the probability that an individual, selected at random from the population at large and tested for the rare disease, actually has the disease if the test indicates he is so afflicted.
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