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The pamphlet uses a clever diagram to represent the possible outcomes of a PSA test with their respective frequencies: True positive False negative False positive True negative A FIGURE 10.9 Kaiser Permanente's outcome diagram of 100 PSA tests. Each dot represents the result of one PSA test. a. The Kaiser diagram is reproduced in Figure 1 below. Use this diagram to find the probabilities of a true-positive, a false-positive, a false-negative, and a true-negative. b. What is the positive predictive value (PPV) of the test? That is, what is the conditional probability that a randomly screened patient has prostate cancer, given that he receives a positive PSA test result?

The pamphlet uses a clever diagram to represent the possible outcomes of a PSA test with their respective frequencies: True positive False negative False positive True negative A FIGURE 10.9 Kaiser Permanente's outcome diagram of 100 PSA tests. Each dot represents the result of one PSA test. a. The Kaiser diagram is reproduced in Figure 1 below. Use this diagram to find the probabilities of a true-positive, a false-positive, a false-negative, and a true-negative. b. What is the positive predictive value (PPV) of the test? That is, what is the conditional probability that a randomly screened patient has prostate cancer, given that he receives a positive PSA test result?

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
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The pamphlet uses a clever diagram to represent the possible outcomes of a PSA test with their respective frequencies: True positive False negative False positive True negative A FIGURE 10.9 Kaiser Permanente's outcome diagram of 100 PSA tests. Each dot represents the result of one PSA test. a. The Kaiser diagram is reproduced in Figure 1 below. Use this diagram to find the probabilities of a true-positive, a false-positive, a false-negative, and a true-negative. b. What is the positive predictive value (PPV) of the test? That is, what is the conditional probability that a randomly screened patient has prostate cancer, given that he receives a positive PSA test result?
Transcribed Image Text:The pamphlet uses a clever diagram to represent the possible outcomes of a PSA test with their respective frequencies: True positive False negative False positive True negative A FIGURE 10.9 Kaiser Permanente's outcome diagram of 100 PSA tests. Each dot represents the result of one PSA test. a. The Kaiser diagram is reproduced in Figure 1 below. Use this diagram to find the probabilities of a true-positive, a false-positive, a false-negative, and a true-negative. b. What is the positive predictive value (PPV) of the test? That is, what is the conditional probability that a randomly screened patient has prostate cancer, given that he receives a positive PSA test result?
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