The probability that an individual randomly selected from a particular population has a certain disease is .05. A diagnostic test correctly detects the presence of the disease 98% of the time and correctly detects the absence of the disease 99% of the time. If the test is applied twice, the two test results are independent, and both are positive, what is the (posterior) probability that the selected individual has the disease? [Hint: Tree diagram with first-generation branches corresponding to Disease and No Disease, and second- and third-generation branches corresponding to results of the two tests.]
The probability that an individual randomly selected from a particular population has a certain disease is .05. A diagnostic test correctly detects the presence of the disease 98% of the time and correctly detects the absence of the disease 99% of the time. If the test is applied twice, the two test results are independent, and both are positive, what is the (posterior) probability that the selected individual has the disease? [Hint: Tree diagram with first-generation branches corresponding to Disease and No Disease, and second- and third-generation branches corresponding to results of the two tests.]
Chapter8: Sequences, Series,and Probability
Section8.7: Probability
Problem 11ECP: A manufacturer has determined that a machine averages one faulty unit for every 500 it produces....
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