Use Bayes rule to calculate P(d is present | t is positive).

College Algebra
7th Edition
ISBN:9781305115545
Author:James Stewart, Lothar Redlin, Saleem Watson
Publisher:James Stewart, Lothar Redlin, Saleem Watson
Chapter9: Counting And Probability
Section9.3: Binomial Probability
Problem 2E: If a binomial experiment has probability p success, then the probability of failure is...
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We are interested in testing for a disease d. We know that in the general population, only 1 in 1000
individuals have this disease.
Tests for the disease differ in their reliability - higher reliability is, of course preferred. Suppose the
test t has 90% reliability.
Use Bayes rule to calculate P(d is present | t is positive).
Hint: You must correctly capture the notion of reliability in a probability equation.
Transcribed Image Text:We are interested in testing for a disease d. We know that in the general population, only 1 in 1000 individuals have this disease. Tests for the disease differ in their reliability - higher reliability is, of course preferred. Suppose the test t has 90% reliability. Use Bayes rule to calculate P(d is present | t is positive). Hint: You must correctly capture the notion of reliability in a probability equation.
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