What are the stages of a demographic transition, and why do some demographers believe that we’ve now entered a fourth stage?
What are the stages of a demographic transition, and why do some demographers believe that we’ve now entered a fourth stage?
Demographic Transition Theory is a model of population changes. With space of time and period, the size of the population changes, and the model in which it shows is known as Demographic Transition Model. It describes the pattern of population changes through the historical past. Prof. Huggett and others describe the four phases of the demographic transition model:
- 1st Phase
- 2nd Phase
- 3rd Phase
- 4th Phase
1st Phase:
It is the most extended period or Phase. It includes the stages of development since the advent of man on the world up to middle age. In this stage, both the birth rate and death rate were high. But the growth rate was almost nil or was so much low that it was not noticeable. Hence, the population was virtually stationary. This stationary population was practically immobile. This inactive population was there because of the high birth rate and death rate.
2nd Phase:
This Phase witnessed the high growth of the population. It was due to the advancement of medical science. Death rate decreased by medical aid, and growth rate remained as high as earlier. Hence, the growth of the population was very high in this Phase. People followed intensive farming on cultivated land, which supported more people than before. It was the period of maximum population growth. The stage of population growth now observes in Africa and southern, south-eastern Asia, and Latin America.
3rd Phase:
This stage characterizes by both the low birth rate and low death rate. Hence, population growth is slower than the 2nd Phase; however, its growth is still there; the death rate is shallow. In some places, the birth rate runs parallel to the development of industries and resource creation. In this Phase, total population growth tends to decline—this stage finds in Eastern Europe and Latin America, and few countries of south-east Asia.
4th Phase:
Countries in this stage have low birth rates and low death rates; hence general growth is insignificant. This stage is known as the stage of "zero population growth." It is the stage of a highly urbanized economy; generally, it achieves during post-industrial economic conditions. Nowadays, most of the highly developed countries of the world have reached this stage. It includes the countries of Western Europe, America, Japan, and Australia.
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