You are evaluating the risks associated with a construction project. Through careful analysis you have developed a list of the following risks, probabilities those risks will happen, and the costs associated with them if they occur. 25% chance of Snowmaggedon which will delay the project at a cost of $35,000 10% chance of cost of construction materials dropping saving the project $70,000 10% probability a labor strike will occur delaying the schedule with a cost of $40,000 80% chance of new regulations mandated calling for higher inspection standards which will cost an additional $15,000 to mitigate What is the EMV of this project?
Addition Rule of Probability
It simply refers to the likelihood of an event taking place whenever the occurrence of an event is uncertain. The probability of a single event can be calculated by dividing the number of successful trials of that event by the total number of trials.
Expected Value
When a large number of trials are performed for any random variable ‘X’, the predicted result is most likely the mean of all the outcomes for the random variable and it is known as expected value also known as expectation. The expected value, also known as the expectation, is denoted by: E(X).
Probability Distributions
Understanding probability is necessary to know the probability distributions. In statistics, probability is how the uncertainty of an event is measured. This event can be anything. The most common examples include tossing a coin, rolling a die, or choosing a card. Each of these events has multiple possibilities. Every such possibility is measured with the help of probability. To be more precise, the probability is used for calculating the occurrence of events that may or may not happen. Probability does not give sure results. Unless the probability of any event is 1, the different outcomes may or may not happen in real life, regardless of how less or how more their probability is.
Basic Probability
The simple definition of probability it is a chance of the occurrence of an event. It is defined in numerical form and the probability value is between 0 to 1. The probability value 0 indicates that there is no chance of that event occurring and the probability value 1 indicates that the event will occur. Sum of the probability value must be 1. The probability value is never a negative number. If it happens, then recheck the calculation.
- You are evaluating the risks associated with a construction project. Through careful analysis you have developed a list of the following risks, probabilities those risks will happen, and the costs associated with them if they occur.
- 25% chance of Snowmaggedon which will delay the project at a cost of $35,000
- 10% chance of cost of construction materials dropping saving the project $70,000
- 10% probability a labor strike will occur delaying the schedule with a cost of $40,000
- 80% chance of new regulations mandated calling for higher inspection standards which will cost an additional $15,000 to mitigate
What is the EMV of this project?
The EMV of the project is the Expected Money Value of the Project.
This value is given by the sum of each expected earning multiplied by each probability.
There is a 25% chance of Snowmaggedon which will delay the project at a cost of $35,000.
The project has a 10% chance of construction materials dropping saving $70,000. So,
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