4. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF THE 777 PROJECT
From the case information, we can see the various internal rates of return estimated for the Boeing 777 project. In addition to the expected, mid-range estimate, we analyzed the high and low estimates as well for price, volume, and GS&A and R&D.
4.1 LOW IRR
4.1.1PRICE
The market share for mid-to-large passenger aircrafts is comprised of five major firms including; Boeing, Northrop, Grumman, McDonnell/Douglas, and Lockheed. The increased competition in this space puts downward pressure on the price, forcing Boeing to evaluate the possibility of a market price below the baseline assumption of $130M. The provided data illustrate the scenario in which the Boeing 777 price could be forced lower to
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For every 1% decrease in R&D, the IRR will increase by 1%. Assuming a stable GS&A of 4% and the estimated R&D of 2.4%, the projected IRR is 19.5%, a .6% increase of the base-case 18.9%. R&D Expense Sales
GS&A Sales 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%
1% 23.5% 22.7% 21.8% 20.9% 19.9%
2% 22.6 21.8 20.8 19.9 19.0
3% 21.7 20.8 19.9 18.9 17.9
4% 20.8 19.9 18.9 17.9 16.9
5% 19.9 18.9 17.9 16.9 15.8
6% 18.9 17.9 16.9 15.8 14.7
7% 17.9% 16.8% 15.8% 14.7% 13.5% Figure 6: IRR sensitivity by GS&A and R&D Low Expected High
% GS&A/Sales 7 4 1
% R&D/Sales 5 3 1
Adjusted R&D 4 2.4 .8
IRR 13.5 18.9 23.5
Adjusted IRR 14.5 19.5 23.7
Figure 7: Adjusted R&D IRRs
WACC Price Volume
14.29% 100 750 18.90% 120 1100
18.90% 130 1000
21.56% 130 1310
4.3 BREAKEVEN POINT
We believe the point at which the project breaks even is noteworthy in this analysis. Accounting for variations in price and volume, we compiled the following estimates listed in Figure 7.
Figure 7: Critical points to break even
5. LIMITATIONS OF THE DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW ANALYSIS
5.1 EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS
5.2 MARKET CONDITIONS
The DCF cannot account for changes in the current economic system with substantial accuracy. A stable market provides stable betas, but the global economy in October of 1990 had become unstable. Future economic recovery or growth cannot be assumed, nor can continued decline. By analyzing multiple WACCs and IRRs, we attempted to view the case from a
Star Appliance is looking to expand their product line and is considering three different projects: dishwashers, garbage disposals, and trash compactors. We want to determine which project would be worth doing by determining if they will add value to Star. Thus, the project(s) that will add the most value to Star Appliance will be worth pursuing. The current hurdle rate of 10% should be re-evaluated by finding the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Then by forecasting the cash flows of each project and discounting them by the WACC to find the net present value, or by solving for the internal rate of return, we should be able to see which projects Star should undertake.
Of considerable concern is that Boeing and McDonnel Douglas have a significant head start in the market. In a shrinking market, the Tri Star, though far superior to the competition, may have missed the window of opportunity. Airline revenues are down while labor and fuel costs are rising. This will drive down demand for all producers of wide-body aircraft.
Most of the corporations calculate WACC for giving investors an estimate on profitability and for being able to weight future projects. We are presented with Boeing current bonds, which constitute the long term debt portion of capital, and with Boeing’s assets which constitute the equity portion of capital. No other weighted entities (such as preferred shares) are considered. The debt/equity ratio would help with the calculation of weights. Boeing would need to earn at least 15.443% return on its investments (including the 7E7 project) in order to maintain the actual share price.
1. There are a few trends in the US airline industry. One is consolidation, wherein existing players merge in an attempt to lower their costs and generate operating synergies. The most recent major merger was the United Continental merger, which is still an ongoing affair, but has created the largest airline in the United States by market share (Martin, 2012). Another trend is towards low-cost carriers. In the US, Southwest has been a long-running success and JetBlue a strong new competitor, but in other countries this business model has proven exceptionally successful. The third major trend is the upward trend in jet fuel prices, and the increasing importance that this puts on hedging fuel prices and capacity management (Hinton, 2011).
It is suggested that the travel industry and the aerospace and defense industry as a whole will continue to grow on the basis of the strong demand emanating from domestic demand as well as globalization. This may give a major boost to the demand for 7E7s as the airlines are already concerned about high fuel costs intensifying out of increased demands from emerging economies like India and China and reduced production. Better design modifications is going to be a major strength for the 7E7 as Boeing is betting on the future of small-mid size airplanes which can fly short as well as long distances with its fuel efficient engines. From an investment perspective, with interest rates at it's lowest in decades, with 911 behind us, and barring a major pandemic such as SARS, the timing seems right for Boeing to pursue this endeavor.
1.) In early 2003, Boeing announced plans to design and sell an airliner named the 7E7. Boeing aimed for the 7E7 to be more fuel efficient, carry between 200 and 250 passengers, able to accomplish both domestic and international flights, as well as be 10% cheaper to operate than Airbus’s A330-200 aircraft. All of these attributes were attractive to Boeing but would come at significant costs. To accomplish these attributes, Boeing proposed to construct the aircraft
Boeing adopts a very thorough, well planned out process to manage the project. The stages are defined clearly and tasks involved in each stage are carried out sequentially. The first stage of their approach is the project definition phase during which Boeing identified holes in the market not met by existing planes, assessed future airline needs, considered alternative plane configurations, explored feasibility of possible technologies and performed preliminary estimation of costs. During the market assessment, analysts gathered information regarding future needs of airlines by speaking directly to
Market structure can be defined as patterns of behaviour by enterprises in an effort to adjust to the markets in which they operate (buy or sell). Pricing strategies and collusive behaviour mergers are a few dimensions of market conduct. It is the industry norm for a legacy carrier to offer service to most popular destinations; Delta reducing routes to a similar schedule as the low-cost airlines is not an option in the multi-billion dollar industry. In order to gain market share from low-cost airlines, Delta must create a value proposition that differentiates itself from its competitors. Many customers will pay a premium if the level of service provided is higher than the low-cost, no-frills
With only a few large companies across the globe (Boeing, MD, and Airbus), the commercial aircraft industry essentially exhibits the qualities of an oligopolistic competition with intense rivalry. Here is an analysis of competition in the commercial aircraft business using Porter’s Five Forces.
Market Share Airbus will launch their new large, long distance plane A380 in 2006. This plane can be a dreadful competitive product to Boeing. If Boeing falls behind regarding innovations, fuel efficiency and other attributes of a long haul airliner, it will soon lose its market share. In order for Boeing to compete in the aviation industry, it is crucial to take on some risk and develop this new 7E7 project. This helps the company to fight against its competitors and recover from the slump in the industry.
1.1 In developing the Boeing 787 Dreamliner, Boeing executive management’s initial decisions and project management strategies did not control the four major measurements of project success: time, budget, performance and client acceptance (Pinto, 2013, pp. 35,36). This report analyses the methodology and project management decisions that led to a project crisis and risk to Boeing’s reputation.
The main barrier to entry in the aircraft manufacturing market is the sheer size of the industry and the amount of capital investment required to make the aircraft. Moreover, the concerns of the aviation industry are not similar
Second, Airbus, McDonnell Douglas, and Boeing are multi-product firms that are selling several products during most time periods. When Boeing considers lowering a price of one of its products, this will not only reduce the market share of Airbus’s products, but it might also undercut the sales of Boeing’s other products. Boeing may then lower its prices by less than in a situation when it only sells one product.
In the market for large aircraft demand the emerging niche for very large aircraft (VLCT aircraft seating more than 400 passengers) saw only two competitors: Boeing and Airbus. Even though both competitors’ moves were clearly marked by technology enhancements, and different target markets but both exhibited strategic interdependence.
The supplier power in airlines is dominated by the world’s two largest aircraft manufacturers are Airbus and Boeing. The competition between the two manufacturers is neck to neck but that would prove to be a boon for Emirates as the prices would not rocket through the ceiling. A study shows that Emirates holds 93 Boeing aircrafts and 83 Airbus units (Planespotters, 2009). In 2007, Emirates purchased 81 Airbus flights, to extend it services- however, they chose Airbus over Boeing as the latter failed to deliver its latest aircrafts on time and moreover, Airbus had quoted a good price (Barryl, 2007). The changing oil prices also have an adverse effect on the aviation industry. In a nutshell, the bargaining power of suppliers is high.