Based on this week's reading and lesson notes, evaluate the arguments and evidence that terrorist groups are likely or unlikely to use CBRN weapon. In particular, what do you think are the prospects for al Qaeda and/or other sub-state actors to acquire and use a CBRN weapon in a foreign country? In the United States? Why or why not?
Based on this week’s readings, I believe both rogue and established terrorist organizations possess the capability to unleash CBRN weapons in international and domestic attacks. The ability of sub and non-state actors to disperse CBRN weapons will be limited due to the fact they have limited resources. Small terrorist activities will not have a military or strategic capability to execute a high-altitude airburst, which would have the most widespread effect. According to Sinai (2007), terrorist
…show more content…
Since their desired effect is ‘shock and awe’, WMD would be an attractive option to a cowardly force, seeking to inflict the most psychological and physical effects. Not all attacks require ‘mass casualty’ status to garner attention. According to the National Counterterrorism Council (2008), 11,800 terrorist attacks resulted in 54,000 deaths, injuries, and kidnappings. Excluding the outcome of 9/11, al Qaeda employs close-range attacks and generally inflicts casualties to small numbers. Since overt forces are stronger in the Middle East, I would anticipate a CBRN attack within their homeland, as the indigenous framework of sympathizers and extremists can deliver a larger-scale and better-organized attack. In consideration of Yamin’s (2013) findings, countries with terrorist links, such as Syria and Pakistan have publicly declared they produce and stockpile CBW. If terrorists receive financial backing and political shelter from these countries, there is a possibility of these weapons coming into their
Terrorism has become popular among extremists who are employing different dynamic strategies to thrive in their agenda. Understanding the terror groups is fundamental principle to overcome them or counter the sects. Modern terrorism has additionally advanced. Today 's assaults are less incessant, however all the more savage. Terrorists beforehand acted like renegades trying to connect with the foe (Miller, 2013. This was trailed by a period of kidnappings and plane hijackings. States create first class counter-terrorist strengths, extraordinarily prepared at prisoner transaction and salvage. Like the youngster 's amusement - paper-scissors-stone the following phase of advancement was the appropriation of bombings as the favored strategy (Roberts, 2014). Bombs can be delivered from basic materials, put and exploded remotely, with generally okay to the planes and little open door for counter-terrorist strengths to catch them. Terror groups like the IRA, Al-Qaida, ISIS and Boko
Where security is increased, there are delays that cause problems in other areas. With the additional delays at airports, more travelers choose to travel by automobile. Four hundred additional fatalities have occurred each year on U.S. highways since 9/11 because of increased security at the airpo1rts (Mueller 2010).
One need only look to Osama bin Laden's statement in 1998 when he stated that it was his Islamic duty to acquire weapons of mass destruction and the fulfilling that intent became a top priority for his lieutenants in the ensuing years. (Mowatt-Larssen 2010, para. 2) Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) has already shown this to be true when they used sixteen crude chlorine bombs in attacks within Iraq in 2006 and 2007. (BBC News, 2013) Clearly, there is not only stated intent to acquire CBRN
Ralph Lumb of the 1967 Lumb Panel said "We just took a shot" (Jenkins 39). For many decades this shot-in-the-dark attitude defined the academic study into nuclear terror. This was because terror organizations at the time were not known to be actively seeking the acquisition of nuclear weapons or materials. This question of demand is important when considering the risks of nuclear terror. Jenkins writes that "Since, by definition, terrorism is violence carried out to create terror and nuclear weapons are the ultimate weapons of terror, it is natural to assume that all terrorists would want them" (60).
1. There are three defined intelligence approaches to WMD/Terrorism. These are the Strict Constructionist approach, the Unilateralist Approach, and the Reasonable Necessity approach. Those who believe in the Constructionist approach believe in “...non-violent methods of conflict resolution” and they are “...skeptic of military force and intervention...” (Forest & Howard, 2013, p. 483). People that are into the Unilateralist approach are completely different from those in the Constructionist approach, in which that they believe that “...states have a right to use self-defensive force against some states that have, or will soon have, WMD capabilities-even absent identifiable plants for imminent attack...” (Forest & Howard, 2013, p. 485).
After thoroughly reading this week’s course material, choose one potential weapon from one of the chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) categories (i.e. you could select Tularemia, which could be a potential biological weapon). Write in your own words your assessment of your selected potential weapon's characteristics, accessibility, consequences of terrorists using that weapon based in researched facts. Please provide any support information required.
A specific CBRN threat learned in this course viewed as an increasing threat is the nuclear weapon, low-yield to be specific. Other CBRN threats are likely, if not more, but none would give witness of terrorist/ISIS power like nuclear. It is the nuclear attack that has immediate results, no vaccine, and enduring collateral damage. It is my opinion that a coordinated multi-strike low-yield nuclear attack would be a signature move desired by terrorists or ISIS.
When talking about CBRN devices and tactics that may be used in a terrorist attack, people envidiblity think about what is commonly referred to as a “dirty bomb”, or a RDD (radiological dispersal device). This type of device offers many advantages to an individual or group wanting to cause harm or more importantly cause terror. These types of devices are rudimentary in design and their basic purpose is to spread radioactive debris in a manner that it will be absorbed by as many people as possible. The means of spreading this material can come in various forms. The typical design would involve explosives and a radioactive element that would disperse rapidly upon activation of the explosive device. There are other methods that a terrorist
The threat posed by Aum Shinrikyo has diminished due to the intense scrutiny they have been under since their 1995 attack in Japan (Alfred 2015, 1). The former threats that the organization posed to the public hold many lessons for antiterrorism officials and would be terrorist networks. The CBRN weapons used by the organization are still in use by others today and pose a continued threat to the U.S. and its allies.
Terrorism poses a serious threat to the security of every nation; a worldwide problem that doesn’t recognize borders, nationality, or religion. These Non State Actors (NSA’s), entities engaging in international operations without the authority of an established nation are always looking for a better way to further their agenda. One of these ways is through the pursuit of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD). Most isotopes that can be utilized to create an operational device are easily tracked due to their radioactive signature, and the technology is rare making it difficult to acquire a feasible nuclear program. The next best thing is to instill fear and panic, is chemical and Biological weapons. The only way to deter these actions is to actively monitor precursor, sources, and the organizations and groups which have expressed interest in creating a Weapon of Mass Destruction (WMD) program.
The chance of terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda and ISIS to use CBRN weapons is very likely. Al-Qaeda’s plan is to rule out Western forces out of the Islamic countries. During the war in Iraq in 2007, Iraq Insurgents blew up a truck mixed with chlorine (Cave, February 2007). This was not the first time the United States faced a bomb mixed with chlorine, in which with a few heavy breaths can be fatal. The first bombing with chlorine took place in January of 2007 which involved a dump truck and a chlorine tank. The biggest thing that is forgotten is terrorist do not fall under the Geneva Convention. They are not afraid to use “whatever” means of destruction against the United States and other allied countries. The problem is that terrorists
Another terrorist weapon that is still in the infancy stages is cyberterrorism. Currently the computer threat is minimal with only a few viruses here and there, but with the evolution process, Laqueur foresees a greater threat through the use of the computer. With a global society quickly becoming dependent on the use of the computer, the attacks could lead to total country disorientation.
Weapons of Mass Destruction Weapons of Mass Destruction (1) Introduction (2) The Term * 1 Early uses of term * 1.1 Evolution of its use * 2 Definitions of the term * 2.1 United States * 2.1.1 Strategic * 2.1.2 Military * 2.1.3 Criminal (civilian) * 3 Common hazard symbols * 3.1 Radioactive weaponry/hazard symbol * 3.2 Biological weaponry/hazard symbol (3) Treaties * 1 General
A weapon of mass destruction (WMD) is a term that many have come to fear because it can occur on various levels that can destroy on a large-scale. Nuclear, biological, chemical, radiological and explosive weapons are all able to do substantial damage and pose challenges to civilians and property. Many countries are in possession of these types of weapons and vow that they are secure enough so that there is no access to outside forces such as terrorist organizations (The National Counterterrorism Center, 2017). It is constantly seen throughout the media the various attacks that have been carried out by these organizations to prove their points. However, none of them have used WMDs as of yet. The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has advised for several years that terrorist organizations are interested in these weapons of any kind that they are able to get their hands on and that interest in only going to grow as the years progress (Schwalbe, 2017).
Modern terrorists have come to the realization that “they cannot defeat the United States in a conventional war, but they can impose significant pain through acts of terrorism,” (Stern, p.5). After a century of American military, economic, and social success, the US has been elevated to the forefront of the global community. A defense budget of $401.7 billion makes the United States the dominant military force in the world, (2005 US Federal Budget). Furthermore, our history of success has established a general sentiment of invincibility among American citizens, and an attack on our civilian population would have tremendous ramifications, as was seen with the occurrence of September 11th. However, unlike al-Qaeda in Afghanistan under the Taliban, a nuclear attack may come from a group that does not enjoy the sponsorship of a state, making retaliation quite complicated. This sense of anonymity is another issue of terrorists with nukes that trumps a state with such capabilities. In the case of a state, there is a particular, defined, and easily identifiable party