Abstract The past year election was one of the most controversial elections I have seen. Even the polls got the winner wrong. Since I have been in this country I have never seen a poll prediction that has been so far off even the day of the election. In the next couple of pages an attempt to explain what went so wrong with the polls. From the new era of cellphones, to hidden voters who lied to the pollsters. To them not counting uneducated voters because they are less likely to vote. Three lessons that we learned this past election and one of the most important to me is to remember that predicting the future is very hard. That no one can have 100% prediction.
What went wrong in 2016?
As the night of November 8th, 2016
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Pollsters underestimated the amount of Trump hidden votes. The number of people who were undecided at the time of election day and then decided to vote for Trump. Some of them were not even aware of their preference until election day.
Cell phones
Prior to cell phones, technology was less advanced meaning people still owned landlines. Landlines were more accessible; pollsters just had to go to a phone book look at the number and call. They also set a specific demographic on what county or region would vote for who. Allowing them to also have a more accurate and random sample pulling. However, when cell phones came into play, they do not allow to have much of an accurate or random pulling anymore. One of the problems with cell phones is region. People move homes, with cell phones they can keep their number even if they move from one state to another. Giving the pollsters wrong data on region or county. Let’s say someone from Miami moves to Frt. Lauderdale, they can keep their area code number, making it bias for the pollsters.
Another issue with cell phones is that many of us like to keep our information private. Unlike landlines, there is no phonebook to get the numbers from. Per Vann R. Newkirk II other online surveys and methods have been tried in order
Undoubtedly, the last 80 years have brought the biggest change to the election process - polling. Beginning with the Gallup poll in 1936, the industry has become a titanic business, growing unregulated by the United States government. Frequently, polls have come under fire for their inaccuracy, or for their role in blocking the Democratic process (the 2000 and 2004 elections come to mind). Nonetheless, the 1992 election was not notable because of alleged bias, but because of what the polls said about
After research-filled, highly targeted, and negative campaigns, the results of the 2016 Presidential Election stunned the world. But were these results really all that surprising? America was prepared for a change in policy and election projections were incorrect due to the fact that there existed many “under cover Trumpers”, whom voted their conscience but were not willing to openly admit their political beliefs for fear of condemnation. The 2016 Presidential Election results open many areas for research into the legitimacy of the Electoral College, civic engagement, and campaign strategies as well as raises concerns over the fear American people possessed in defending their political values.
It was a cold November day as people gathered around their television, eagerly awaiting the news of the 2000 Presidential election. Would the victor be Texas governor George W. Bush or Vice President Al Gore? It was a close election, with Bush only leading by 537 votes. “The 2000 presidential election was the first in 112 years in which a president lost the popular vote, but captured enough states to win the electoral vote.” (The Disputed Election) However, if the majority of eligible Americans would have voted, the outcome may have been different. Throughout American history, the number of voting participants diminishes. According to Warren E. Miller, “[n]early 63 percent of the voting-age populace went to the polls in 1960, when John F. Kennedy
The election of 2016 was an event that brought out the worst in Americans. Joanne B. Freeman describes that the constant arguing between voters and the persistent burlesquing between candidates in the most recent election is not all that different than the 1800 election. Both elections also used forms of media of the time to gain votes. The media of 1800 were newspapers, rather than instagram posts and tweets. I agree with these notions and that the election of 1800 is not a “stepping-stone to modern party politics”. I think this way as well. The two elections are extremely different because the recent election was majority focused on the two-party system, while the 1800 election came down to two candidates of the same, democratic-republican,
I will now examine some of last election year’s results. Voter turnout has decreased in the past years. There are two main factors that have been coming up in the past years. First, many citizens say that who is elected in office is not as important as it once was. Secondly, younger Americans are more cynical and disconnected from politics than ever. I think there is too much information out there and another thing that might be the reason this is happening is
In the article The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly in Public Opinion Polls there are many types of polls and poll reports that at a quick glance might seem to be giving accurate information, but when looked at critically the discrepancies begin to show. Most average people who see political polls or any other polls usually don’t question the results let alone go and do research to see if those results are true or if they are bias. This tends to leave people misinformed and can cause them to be easily convinced by people like politicians. Fortunately, we live in the modern age where information is readily available to us, and with a click of a button we can search for the true results. But where do we start and how do we know if the results of a
The second hypothesis the research center looks into as they call it the “shy Trumper effect” revolves around the idea that trump voters were hesitant to show their support due to the social stigma that was built which made it uncomfortable for trump voters to show their true stance. Once inside the voting booth they sent their vote to trump while on the survey pools they participated they claimed they would vote for Clinton. Last but, not least the third hypothesis which is the likely voter error is in reference that the majority of registered voters who claimed they would vote actually didn't and everyone else who was not part of the survey actually turned out to vote. Although, it is too early to say what actually went wrong until further
The controversial election of 2000 between George Bush and Al Gore was too close to determine a winner. With a margin of victory that minimal; a mandatory recount was required. The winner of the election hinged on the state of Florida, therefore a recount was done in the state of Florida to signify a winner. After the recount was finished, the outcome was Bush. The democrats pushed for a national recount; but the decision wasn’t in their favor. I believe the election of 2000 was not legitimate because the numbers show otherwise. If a national hand recount were to be sanctioned, the numbers indicate that Gore would have overturned the ruling and came out on top. Sadly, Gore never requested a statewide recount, and the recount in Florida favored
The 2016 election was one that certainly deviated from what most people think of when they think of a “typical” election. This election was a deeply partisan election that became more about disliking the other candidate than voting on issues or for a specific candidate. The 2016 Presidential Election surprised many experts, according to most polls and experts this election was supposed to be a landslide victory for Hillary Clinton, but due to the Democratic Party being out of touch with the working-class and Midwest voters Donald Trump was able to upset Hillary Clinton to win the election.
The title of the article is a little misleading because the polls that are misleading are the ones that need to “stop the polling insanity.” Will they? No. So, the point of the article is that it is up to the individual reading the polls to assess
Last year’s circumstance was the first of its kind in over a century. There have been many close elections, but none have resulted in the popular candidate losing to his opponent. The Electoral College cast the final vote in that election. The people who went out to the polls in November, many of whom believing that they were indeed voting for
This recent election that took place on November 8, 2016 included candidate Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Towards the beginning of the election the results seemed that Hillary would win and was taking
On Tuesday, November 7, 2000, the voting had begun like any other election did in the past, people came and voted who they wanted as president, but voting turned for the worst that day. After announcing that Gore wins Florida and then Bush was the winner, the news media proclaimed that the results were too close to call. In Florida, people were voting by punching a hole in a ballot card that would be counted by a machine, which detected the holes. The people were left unsure of who they voted for on the ballot because it was confusing them. On November 26, Bush announced the winner of Florida by Florida’s Election Commission. Hanging and dimpled chads' on the ballot cards in Broward County left votes unclear, voting instructions in Duval County left the voters obscured, and in Palm Beach, the butterfly ballot was causing a large-scale problem with voting. On the butterfly ballot, punched holes were extremely too close to each other between the names of Al Gore and third-
We have come a long way from a time when only white, affluent, property owning males could vote. In terms of ‘voting rights’ it was a gradual expansion of the vote, which slowly began to expand to all whites, individuals once labeled slaves or ‘aliens’, African Americans, military personal and women. To vote in the United States, no longer do you need to pass a literacy test, but you must be a U.S citizen and at least 18 years old on Election Day. In addition, some states also require various periods of residency before voting is permitted. Furthermore some states restrict felons or those mentally incompetent to vote. In Massachusetts, for the first time, there was Early Voting. During this period, October 24th to November 4th, registered voters were allowed to cast their ballots. During this period of Early voting, I along with a group of classmates had the engaging opportunity to be an exit pollster. We decided to canvas much of the Boston area, with hopes of a ranging demographic. This hands-on experience, working with a team in carrying out the exit poll, allowed for a greater insight to the dynamics of election administration, a deeper understanding on the rights of voters and voter turn out, technique for attaining a random sample, the role of the interviewer and importance of survey design.
Strong negative opinions often rise out of ignorance. Not this time. Pew also reported 85 percent of voters say they are “following the election closely.” Sixty percent say they are “more interested in politics than they were four years ago.”