Demand Estimation and Forecasting

Supply chain operations focus on demand planning, forecasting, and inventory management. Forecasts estimate customer demand for a particular product during a specific period of time based on historical data, external drivers such as upcoming sales and promotions, and any changes in trends or competition. Using

Target is the second biggest retail company after Walmart. Native New Yorker, George Draper Dayton first built a company named Dayton Dry Goods Company in 1902 in the Minneapolis area which is now known as target headquarter. Walmart faced the out of stock issue problem last year and now their biggest competitor, Target, also has faced the same problem this year. Target has a problem keeping the availability of the product in their stores in Canada. It resulted in a huge loss of money and closing down their stores. The CEO of Target said that this is a serious problem and must been solved.

Forecasting should include the use of both quantitative and qualitative approaches to forecast demand for its products.

Use the sales forecaster’s predication to describe a normal probability distribution that can be used to approximate the demand distribution. Sketch the distribution and show its mean and standard deviation.

The current demand forecasting method is based on qualitative techniques more than quantitative ones. If the forecast is not accurate, the company would carry both inventory and stock out costs. It might lose customers due to shortage of supply or carry additional holding costs due to excess production. If the actual demand doesn’t match the forecast ones, and the forecast was too high, this will result in high inventories, obsolescence, asset disposals, and increased carrying costs. When a forecast is too low, the customer resorts to a competitive product or retailer. A supplier could lose both sales and shelf space at that retail location forever if their predictions continue to be inaccurate. The tolerance level of the average consumer

* Customer demand: Rather than basing on history and forecast sale of its products, the company should pay more attention in analyzing some uncontrollable factors such as inflation, recession, and currency exchange rate which may affect customers’ buying behavior.

* Forecasting is an impartial strategic ingredient that will ensure apt base for reputable planning. Our forecast is always the first step in developing plans in running the business along with our future plans of growth strategies. With this tool, we are able to anticipate our sales within reason that then can allow for us to control our costs in conjunction with inventory which will then help us to enhance our customer service. Sales forecasting is a vital strategic tactic in our company’s methodology.

To start with, the 1st model used is regression line method. According to this method, the technique fits a trend line to a series of historical data point and the projects the line into the future for medium to long range forecasts

But even this is not possible in case of a new product or innovation. A forecast of sales, demand, cash, requirements and several such business valuables are extremely essential for a business in order to be able to appropriately plan and conduct its operations in an effective and efficient manner. Yet, forecasts cannot be made accurately as there are several factors and changes in the current environment that leads to variations in forecasts and impacts or causes a manager to make changes in the forecasts.

1.Detail and discuss alt the challenges you faced in projecting demand: meeting customer needs and wants, pricing, competitive actions and competitive response. How did your decisions impact your end performance (market share, income statement)?

Before, the concept of demand forecast was to serve the key functional groups in achieving their own interest. Facing the new challenges, forecast needed to be more accurate. And therefore it needed a new concept that is to have a consensus forecasting that would accurately reveal market demand and align the needs of key actors in the forecasting process. Leitax implemented two specific changes in forecasting process. The first one is to switch the focus from sell-in to sell-through and second one is to ignore capacity constraints.

The following graph demonstrate the demand curve of how many items of a product or service a consumer would like to purchase at different prices. Now by having the product at a lower price, the more a consumer is likely to buy. For that same reason it can be concluded that the price is one major factor of the product demand.

The concept of demand forecasting more accurately measures and predicts the changes and opportunities in the supply chain.

Business forecasting is the process of studying historical performance for the purpose of using the information gained to project future business conditions so that decisions can be made today that will assist in the achievement of certain goals. Forecasting involves taking historical date and using it to project future data with a mathematical model. Forecasts are extensively used to support business decisions and direct the work of operations managers. In this paper I will introduce different types of forecasting techniques.

Forecasting demand is the art and science of predicting future demand. There are several different techniques that can be employed alone or in combination with each other, depending upon the firm’s particular situation and the point in the product’s life cycle, and they are further classified as to the time horizon they represent. Forecasts are generally quantitative (relying on historical data) or qualitative (such as variable personal experiences).