Assignment Form
|Course: | Data, Model and Decision |
|Instructor: | Dr. Feng Haolin |
|Homework: |Decision Analysis |
|Name: | Group 1. Li Yuechuan/ Pankaj Malhotra/ Liang Yuan/ Wu Zhuhua/ Tan Jing/ Gu Junling |
|Student ID No.: | |
|Class: |11FB
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In the case, structuring the problem is as below:
(1) How to make our offer when there is only one bidder and multiple bidder?
(2) What is Decision Node, what is the Event Node?
(3) What is the probability of each event node?
Analyzing the problem is as below:
(1) Evaluate options and find out the best way of offers;
(2) Select the best choice.
Part.3 Decision Tree
[pic]
Chart 1 Decision Tree
First of all, Debbie and George (D&G) have three choices to make offer with $390,000, 400,000 and 405,000 respectively. Take offer $390,000 for example, the probability of acceptance for this offer is 0.3, whereas probability of rejection is 0.7. If it is accepted, the deal is made for $390,000. On the other hand, if it is rejected, D&G will have three alternatives at second stages, which are withdraw offer, remain same offer and increase offer by 5,000 respectively. The probabilities of The EMV of these three choices are 0, 4,000 and 4,500, as calculated in the decision tree. Hence the decision F will take the highest EMV value of 4,500. Afterwards, we summarize decision E and F according to their weight, and get the EMV for event B as 5,550.
Likewise, we can get EMV of event B and C as 5,300 and 3,800 respectively.
Part.4 Sensitivity Analysis,
From the decision tree above, the main data include two parts, the price and the percentage of acceptance, so the basic calculation is as followed:
I would strongly object to say the first offer given that I have a very vague idea of Yazawa’s reservation value (like in Elmtree House deal and as recommended by Molhotra & Bezerman in Negotiation Genius, pg. 30 where it is stated: “If you suspect that you may not have enough information about the ZOPA, you’d be wise to defer an opening offer until you have collected more information. If I can’t avoid it, I would state a price that would be also a counteroffer to any opening suggestion from Mr. Mori. That would be $70 per unit. With that anchor, if the negotiation falls somewhere in the middle as stated in the Elmtree House case, it would be around my aspiration value of $30 per unit.
who have trouble finding a group will be assigned to one by me. Once you have formed your group,
$200,000. The new home can be purchased for $275,000. Which of the following is not relevant to Robert's decision?
There are many things i learned in ten weeks in D.A.R.E class. In D.A.R.E class we learned about bullying, stress, and the D.A.R.E Decision Making Model. These are the three things i will tell you about and explain why i chose them for my essay. Before i tell all my paragraphs about Bullying, stress, and the D.A.R.E Decision Making Model.
Simultaneously I would contact the other vendors (if any, depending on the Single source reason) and find out if they are interested in participate on the solicitation. Also, find out what was the reason/s of them not biding or not participate.
Over 443,000 people die from smoking each year! Smoking, alcohol, drugs, and much more, are all preventable yet they all kill hundreds of thousands of people each year. With, D.A.R.E. there are fewer and fewer people who do these things and overall fewer deaths due to them. Now I will tell you about the D.A.R.E. program.
4. Name two types of negotiated contracts and describe the method of payment and incentive concept.
Have you ever been in a situation where you didn’t know how to respond? I sure know I have. In fact, for the past 7 weeks, the rest of my class and I have learned so many convenient things during D.A.R.E., including what to do in certain situations. Some other examples would include drug awareness, health effects, and tips on communication. Everything that we have learned are life long lessons; they will lead us to a very safe and happy life. Every week brings another lesson to mind, and as a student, I am very proud to be a part of the program.
The managerial decision point is the amount of promotion subsidy to provide d to Amazon to drive price discounting. Therefore, there were 4 four values to be considered: $1, $2, $3, $4. As each week could have different subsidy, simulations were run with each permutation of value considered, resulting in 256 simulations being run.
I will show this proposal to only one agency at a time, so if you are interested in seeing it, please contact me right away by phone or email. I hope to hear from you to discuss this
In order to prepare for the class on March 20 you are required to read on individual decision making and costs answer the following questions
S = 83.1, X = 45.6, Risk free rate 8.03, d1 = 1.4966, d2 = 0.2719, N (d1) = 0.93275, N (d2) = 0.60714
The opportunity cost of taking job A included the forgone salary of $102,000 plus the $5,000 of intangibles from job B.
3. The expected return for each firm was calculated: Expected Return = Alpha + (Beta x BSE 500 actual return).
Given that nodes 3 and 4 are both decision nodes, the decision alternative branch that leads to the best expected value for each of these two nodes will be selected. At node 3, there is a choice of D1 (node 6) or D2. As node 5 has the higher expected value, D1 will be selected over D2. Consequently, the expected value at node 3 becomes $0.35 million. Whereas for node 4, the decision alternative of D1 or D2 both give the same expected value – 0. Therefore, the expected value at node 4 is 0.