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Drop in Price of Crude Oil: Implication on the Nigerian Economy

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DROP IN PRICE OF CRUDE OIL: IMPLICATION ON THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY

PAPER DELIVERED TO BOARD OF DIRECTORS OF GUINNESS NIGERIA PLC

Executive Summary
The volatility in the prices of crude oil in the international oil market which was triggered by factors within the global economy has impacted the Nigeria economy to some degree with dire consequences for the implementation of the 2012 budget. Some of the factors which triggered the fall in oil prices include a massive liquidation of net-long speculative positions, a deepening Euro-zone crisis as well as concerns over a weakening economic outlook, steady rise in global crude stocks, weak US jobs data, and a slowdown in Chinese manufacturing activity.
Worries …show more content…

2012 |121.87 |9% | |
|Mar. 2012 |128 |15% | |
|Apr. 2012 |98.06 |-12% | |
|May. 2012 |87.8 |-21% | |
| | |

The Nigerian budget is predicated on an oil price of USD 72 per barrel and an exchange rate of N155 to USD1. The challenge therefore is that unless the spiraling fall in the price of oil is arrested, it may throw spanners in the revenue projections as contained in the budget and make its implementation unachievable.
Proshare Nigeria Limited explained that “While the 2012 budget set the oil revenue benchmark at $72/ barrel, with the country’s Excess Crude Account taking in whatever comes in over the benchmark, a fall in oil prices from the recent highs of over $120/ barrel to say $90/ barrel will imply a loss of almost N1 billion in revenues for Nigeria and a diminution in

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