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Essay On Mc

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A MC is often used due to its high accuracy along with the better capability of reproducing statistical properties of wind speed, and this is the approach selected for my study. Moreover, the use of energy storage in the system makes it essential to capture the correlation structure within the time series over time, which again favours the use of the MC. I provide the definition of a MC here, but details of this method will be discussed in Section 4.1. A MC is a sequence of random variables $\{X_{t}\}_{t \geq 0}$ such that, for any $t = 0, 1, 2, \dots$, the random variable $\{X_{t}\}$ can take values from a discrete set of states $\{i_{0} \dots, i_{N}\}$ and satisfies the Markov property for conditional probabilities: A MC represents a …show more content…

The comparisons are based on the statistical properties (i.e., mean, median, standard deviation, percentiles, Weibull parameters, etc). They also conclude that a second order MC model generates more accurate results. There are other similar studies that use the first and second order of MC models for generating wind speed time series, such as the work carried out by \cite{article:Ho08} and \cite{article:Ca10}. When applying MC models, one important step is to determine the MC state size, \cite{article:Ho08} observe that with an increasing the number of states, it has a significant benefit in terms of quality of the generated data. They construct two different MC models, one with 13 wind speed states and one with 26 wind speed states. The generated data from both models are compared against actual data. They conclude that statistical characteristics are satisfactorily reproduced by the generated data, but increasing the dimension of the state of a MC model leads to more accurate results. There is also a MC model developed for incomplete data; \cite{article:KC13} present a novel approach for accurately modelling and ultimately predicting wind speed for selected sites when there is incomplete data. The application of a seasonal simulation for the synthetic generation of wind speed data is achieved using the MC Monte Carlo technique with only one month of data from each season. The limited data is used to produce synthesised data that sufficiently

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