Analysis Of The Certainty Of Fools By Daniel Kahneman

Each of us is confronted with decisions in our everyday lives that require us to gather and assess information on the different alternatives at hand and then make a decision. Examples of such decisions include the decision to attend college, buy a car or some other item, strike up a friendship with Person A or B, select a particular course, or take a trip to Point X or Y. You may have made an error in such decisions because your information was flawed by one or more of the errors of human inquiry that Babbie describes, or the decision may have been correct but for some of the wrong reasons. Recall and describe a decision you have made that may have been flawed to some extent

Regardless of whether or not a person may know the facts behind a situation, predisposition trumps knowledge learned later on; just as instinct trumps what has been taught. It is human nature to believe in what one thinks is correct, even if there are facts that prove otherwise and one will go to the necessary lengths to prove themselves so. In Kolbert’s article, Why Facts Don’t Change Our Minds, various studies are put into use to explain this theory.

In this lifetime, we will make decisions that affect our careers, our families, and countless other important ingredients in our everyday lives. In making these decisions, there should be some measure of doubt, to keep reality in check. But certainty leads to confidence, and the overall ability to make decisions and form opinions. This is why one should be certain, but use doubt to rationalize decisions and opinions.

After reading “Thoughts of the Presence of Fear” by Wendell Berry and “Useless Knowledge” by Bertrand Russell, I found that it is quite evident that the approach of the 2 arguments proposed by the authors are very different. Wendell Berry’s approach is a more negative way because he states the solutions to the given problems, however, they are generalized. He doesn’t really go in depth as to why a certain solution will help or how the solution will lead to a better environment. Rather he mainly states that if we don’t change then it will lead to destruction. On the other hand, Russell incorporates personal experiences in his essay to fully support his argument. An example from the text would be his quote, “Curious learning not only makes unpleasant

To test just exactly how E.S.P. worked, he created an experiment with Zener cards, which had one of a total 5 pictures on each of them. Rhine would draw a card form the deck and ask the subject to guess what picture was on the card. Out of the many subjects tested, most guessed only about 20% of the cards correct, but one young man averaged about 50% correct. This young man, Adam Linzmayer, would even guess up to 9 cards in a row, which was almost a one in a million chance—he did it three times. Rhine became overly excited of his findings on his belief in E.S.P. and wanted to publish the results. But upon his replication of the experiment, Linzmayer’s success rate of guessing the drawn cards greatly decreased (Lehrer, para. 12-13). This decline effect could possible be due to regressive fallacy, which is the inability to account natural and unavoidable fluctuations in experiments. For example, things like stock market prices and chronic back pain unavoidably fluctuate between prosperous and well-feeling times to poor and pain-filled times. By setting aside the idea of natural and unavoidable fluctuations, one can ultimately fall into self-deception and into post hoc

Have you ever made a decision and later completely wonder why it is you made that decision? “Sway The Irresistible Pull of Irrational Behavior” by Ori Brafman and Rom Brafman examine moments of our lives where we could easily be swayed. The Brafmans discuss topics like commitment and value attribution. With examples of what attracts us into making a bad decision. The brilliant authors make it easy to understand the analyzations of the situations. Where there is a possibility of being swayed. With proper analyzation we can prevent these situations from taking place again. Almost everyone has made a decision we misunderstand and behind that decision is an irresistible pull of irrational behavior. No one is perfect, and no one can avoid being swayed into an irrational situation, not even me.

Voltaire once said, “Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is an absurd one.” We live in a world that is constantly changing and does not grant the certainty that people desire. But, people want the stability of knowing what is going to happen; this is why certainty is absurd. In his essay The Surety of Fools, Daniel Kahneman provides examples of people using a phenomenon he calls the illusion of validity. These people strongly believe their actions cause a specific outcome, when in reality there is statistical evidence that shows their actions have no direct correlation with the outcome. While Kahneman argues the illusion of validity comes partially from people’s tendency to make quick decisions without fully conveying the causes, it really stems from people’s fear of uncertainty from having a lack of knowledge. Other fields of academia, such as science and economics, have admitted that uncertainty grounds their thinking processes. Kahneman is inaccurate in neglecting to mention that it is the fear of uncertainty that really causes the illusion of validity.

What would one say if they were told that a hippopotamus’s milk is pink? First, they would likely disagree, and argue the validity of this fact. The process in which a person is skeptical about something is known as doubt. Doubt is a natural instinct that helps humans keep themselves out of trouble or away from dangerous situations, but if one lives in a constant state of doubt they can miss out on countless opportunities. Between the years of 1601 and 1602 a painter by the name Caravaggio created the dramatic painting The Incredulity of Saint Thomas. This painting plays an important role in creating a vivid image of what doubt is. Doubt is the reasoning for why people will and will not do things.

Every decision a person makes is based on some level of certainty, whether low or high. Certainty and doubt do not exist as opposites. The two ideas are based on level of belief, either low, in the case of doubt, or high, in the case of certainty. They exist as equals, both being able to lead to failure and success. One is not inherently better than the other; they both have the ability to lead to wild success or unfortunate defeat. To be either certain or doubtful, a person must have a strong belief about a subject; what that belief is does not matter as much as whether that belief is correct or inaccurate. Because they exist as equals, a decision between the two should stem from how strong the evidence is for each, and the strongest of this

“Only human beings can look directly at something, have all the information they need to make an accurate prediction, perhaps even momentarily make the accurate prediction, and then say that it isn't so (Becker ),” Gavin De Becker, author of The Gift of Fear. His view is if we trust our intuition completely, we will be safer. Although, it is not guaranteed to stop all violence or misfortune that one may encounter. The Gift Of Fear can save lives because it can allow the audience to use their primitive ability to process the intricate mannerisms often mistakenly disregarded by victims of these recurring misconducts. Gavin De Becker writes of misfortune, yet predictable experiences in his clients’ lives. Becker writes about the different forms of dangers we are may face within lives, and

To start of the novel Fear, by Gabriel Chevallier, Jean Dartemont is in France observing all the civilians celebrate the start of the new war. He criticizes their behavior and strongly disapproves, however, he admits a curiosity in him that convinces him to volunteer for the war for it will be a ‘remarkable spectacle.” After being approved to go to war, Dartemont heads to a training camp. There he becomes a private after failing to become an officer. Here he commands a group, but realized he finds the maintenance of soldiers to be tedious and useless work. Already he becomes quite eager to arrive at the front lines, which soon happens.

Human beings have a biological instinct to resist unusual. Our behaviors are influence through certainty. Not only do we learn through certainty, more significantly we are able to predict its outcome. However there are times when we just don't know why things happen or what to do after it has happened. The focus of this research is to illustrate that people react negatively to events that are uncertain because an outcome cannot be predicted.

In his lecture, “The Will to Believe,” William James addresses how one adopts a belief. There is a hypothesis and an option, where you choose between two live hypotheses. An option has the characteristics to be live or dead, forced or avoidable, and momentous or trivial. In his thesis, James argues how “our passional nature” must make our decisions about our beliefs when they cannot be certainly determined on “intellectual grounds,” however, this is not the case, we can always make the decision based on intellectual grounds. One can use Bayesian probability to gain some grasp of the situation and eventually to make a decision.

It is commonly known advice to not judge a book by its cover, but there is no prevalent platitude that claims the same for a book’s title. A story’s name can serve a number of purposes: it can be an extension of a character, a representation of a moral, or a simple reference to a main plot point. Nevertheless, the title of a book is what sticks in the reader’s mind, and how it will be initially remembered. Patrick Rothfuss’s own choice of a title, The Wise Man’s Fear, is a secret that is gradually unspun as the story is told. The yarnspinner, Kvothe, tells of many fantastical experiences of his youth, such as being a personal bard to the ruler of a foreign country, tracking down a group of truculent bandits in an unmappable forest, and training

Assumptions are automatic opinion that come to mind. Many times we us our assumptions to make a decision on something or someone. When making assumption we sometimes overlook the facts and make an assumption based on what we think about that situation or person. We make assumption at times based on our experiences in life. Our assumptions also help to shape us into the individual we are today. Harris (2011) found that many individuals make daily decision based on assumptions. We operate in assumptions in many ways