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Essay on Forecasting Denosumab

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Forecasting Denosumab

Why is forecasting for any new drug so important? Why for Denosumab?
Drug forecasting is a very important and essential process for any drug for multiple reasons: 1. Cost: The drug development is a lengthy and an expensive process. It will aid in the predevelopment process to identify future demand and to identify if it is a worthwhile venture. The future of a company could depend on the success or failure of a new drug in the market. 2. Profitability 3. Market Share: forecasting will help in identifying the size of the market share and market potential will aid in the manufacturing and distribution process. Will also aid in proper utilization and eliminate waste. 4. Competition: Assess the …show more content…

2. Denosumab has been FDA approved for 2 indications rather than 1 which is true for most of its competition. Both the conditions are prevalent in the population and their incidence is growing. This will allow the drug to tap unmet needs for the available market. 3. No new drugs are to be available in the market for this indication in the next 5 years so it makes the product very lucrative.

How will the customers react when Denosumab is introduced?
The customers for the drug are the patients, providers (physicians) and the insurance companies. 1. The patients will see ease of dosing as well as improved results as compared to the market. They will identify for the drug to decrease disease complications and improved bone health. Give patients alternatives to treatment for their own disease. 2. Physicians will see increased compliance of the drug in their patients as the drug is not patient administered but provider administered. Will limit the variations in dosing patterns and practices. Provide alternatives for treatment. Improve revenue as it is administered in the office rather than at home. 3. Payers: Payers may react to the drug unfavorably as it is at a higher cost as compared to other therapies. They may add the drug to the formulary on a tiered system. But they would be more willing to pay for osteoporosis prevention and management rather than the complications that arise from it.

How will you develop a forecast for Denosumab?
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