Ggft

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Asian Perspectives Global Issues WORKING PAPER FGI-2012-2 Economic Growth Patterns and Strategies in China and India: Past and Future Louis Kuijs September 2012 Fung Global Institute Cyberport 1, Level 12 100 Cyberport Road Hong Kong Tel: (852) 2300 2728 Fax: (852) 2300 2729 www.fungglobalinstitute.org The Fung Global Institute Working Paper Series presents the findings of original and professional research-in-progress on questions and topics that are relevant to the Institute’s research themes. Written by FGI researchers and, sometimes, researchers from other institutions, the papers aim to get the findings out for critical review and feedback. The views expressed in the papers are those of the authors and do not…show more content…
Continued success cannot be taken for granted, though. We know from history that growth trajectories are not sustained on autopilot. Indeed, both countries are aiming at adjusting their growth and development strategies to deal with problems that have emerged and major challenges ahead. Their 12th five-year plans (5YPs) reflect their visions and objectives. However, adjusting growth and development strategies is complex and difficult from both economic and political economy perspectives. Thus, there is a lot of uncertainty about the direction of policy and about whether and how China and India will adjust their pattern of growth. This paper, written as part of the Fung Global Institute’s research project on the Evolving Growth Models in China and India, is a first step towards exploring the issues involved. It tentatively characterises the existing economic growth patterns and problems; summarises how governments want to adjust their growth strategies; introduces some key features of the policymaking process and some of the institutional and political economy problems; and sketches some tentative economic scenarios. 1 In Section 2 we tentatively characterise the existing economic growth pattern in both countries. Policywise, opening up and gradual market-oriented reform in China were combined with a strong role of the government in

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