How will historians remember the 21st Century? I believe that it will be known, when the dust has finally settled, as the Century of the End of Work. Let me explain.
A number of authors think (1) that we are entering an economy in which, due to advances in robotics, artificial intelligence, and 3-D printing, the marginal cost of most manufactured items will fall close to zero. Consider software: while Windows 10 cost millions of dollars to develop, the cost to Microsoft to pushing out another copy over the internet is essentially nonexistent – about 20 minutes on a virtual server that is probably running dozens of instances of Windows. Consider the 3-D printed car. Once the printer is programmed, depending on the cost of materials, the car is very inexpensive.
Consider agriculture. This would seem to be an area resistant to automation and robotics. After all, picking strawberries is labor-intensive. But consider combines and harvesters – wheat cultivation and harvesting of grain and straw is essentially all mechanized now.
Consider artificial intelligence. There are enormously erudite and complex debates about whether an AI can become conscious, and the dangers that might arise from that consciousness. These individuals either ignore the question of what consciousness is, or founder on the attempt to find a definition. (“Being able to produce a narrative about what one is doing while doing it” is perhaps as good a definition as any.)
Bill Gates, Elon Musk, Steven Hawking,
They’re being used in factories, space exploration, and even with building cars. Article, “Robots Long Ago”, explains that “... inventors were creating robotic arms that functioned like human limbs.” It also explained that “These arms were used in factories as well, assembling large and small items without ever becoming tired.” However, that’s not where it ends. There’s a problem brewing within the agricultural category. The article “Robot Farms”, by Felipe Johnson, explains “With a decreasing workforce, many farmers are faced with the problem of how to harvest quickly and effectively with the smallest staff.” Thanks to robots, that wouldn’t be much of a problem anymore. On paragraph 13 and 14 it says, “...farmers can use robots to manage their animals, as well.” and “...little bee ‘bots can pollinate plants in areas where the bee population has decreased or vanished.” Now in present-time their using robots for farmers. They’re extremely useful and they are a great support to the agricultural
Many philosophers have considered the mystery of consciousness to be a “hard problem.” In “The Hornswoggle Problem,” Patricia Churchland rejects the characterization of consciousness as a uniquely hard problem, and asserts her belief that arguing the unknown nature of consciousness, absent any scientific evidence is an argument from ignorance. A proponent of the “hard problem” would instead argue that consciousness possesses a subjective aspect that makes it uniquely different from all other problems. In this paper, it is my contention that Churchland is correct to reject the ‘hard’ problem argument; and without any objective inquiry or research, this “hard problem” argument lacks needed intellectual vigor, and tends to further
called consciousness is the Turing test (Turing, 1950) which, rather tellingly, was originally called the
Henry Ford, an American industrialist proved, not only to America but to the world that a car can be affordable to the so called, “Everyday Man”. “Henry Ford did not invent the car; he produced an automobile that was within the economic reach of the average American” (Sorensen 1). Subsequently, Henry Ford’s assembly lines were used in World War II to make equipment for the army. His car company, Ford, still produces one of the most durable and most cost effective car on the planet. In fact, every big car franchise today uses Henry Ford’s one hundred year old assembly line in order to manufacture safe and efficient transportation for everyone. Seeing that, Henry Ford’s moving assembly line has grown more complex because the parts and variety of vehicles being built continue to evolve. As a matter of fact, more automakers continue to improve the assembly line with flexible tooling, virtual engineering and robotics in order to keep up with the demands of the twenty-first century with ambitions of making Henry Ford’s one hundred year old technology better. Above all, making the automobile less expensive was an achievement in the engineer world, and as Henry Ford said, “Coming together is a beginning; keeping together is progress’ working together is success” (“Henry”
Daniel Bor, a psychological researcher, and author, wrote an article titled “When Do We Become Truly Conscious” published on September 4, 2012 and in this article he discusses the idea of consciousness. Through use of deductive reasoning Bor refers to early opinions viewing consciousness as magic and discusses the science behind demystifying consciousness. Bor also discusses the ethical arguments behind learning for about consciousness. Bor also lists some of the emotional arguments centered on human awareness. Bor’s use of rhetorical strategies is designed to state his opinion in a simple and easily read way.
A worse case scenario occurs when 3D printers and the raw materials they use become so capable, cheap and accessible that everyone can 3D print any product by downloading instructions from amazon.com and other online stores that sell the instructions. In this scenario, mass transportation of many consumer goods is no longer necessary. The raw material will require truck transport from its manufacturers to both retail outlets and to consumers.
We have already seen a decrease in jobs due to automation. Since 2000, the United States has lost 5 million factory jobs, while from 2006 to 2013, manufacturing grew by 17.6% (roughly 2.2% a year). 88% of those jobs were lost due to “productivity growth,” cites a study by Ball State University. The study also found that all sectors grew in terms of productivity by at least 32% from 1998 to 2012 when adjusted for inflation, with computer and electronic products rising 829%. In fact, the researchers found: “If 2000-levels of productivity are applied to 2010-levels of production, the U.S. would have required 20.9 million manufacturing workers instead of the 12.1 million actually employed.” In summary, due to companies’ expenditures in automation and software, the output per U.S. manufacturing worker has doubled over the past two decades. Indeed, “the real robotics revolution is ready to begin,” according to the Boston Consulting Group, who predict “the share of tasks that are performed by robots will rise from a global average of around 10% across all manufacturing industries
Some science fiction authors have predicted horrible futures due to AI and robots taking over jobs and later humanity, but many writers like Andrew McAfee and Erik Brynjolfsson (authors of The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies) dismiss this idea as one unlikely extreme. McAfee and Brynjolfsson describe in their book the nature of machines and manual labor as complements and how their slow delving into becoming economic substitutes as objectively good rather than negative. Businesses naturally do risk cutting automated jobs, but such a move would open an entire new field of jobs for humans to fix and build machines. In turn, businesses like RobotWorx argue that they can make more profit, increase wages for the quality of work from their skilled workers, and remain at the competitive level expected in the modern economic market (more extensive list can be found in their website here). Naturally, such statements beg the question that our economy would not crash because it would naturally adapt and shift due to the moves as it has when such inventions like the assembly line and textile mills came to invention.
Throughout history humans have sought out ways to make life easier for themselves - ancient technologies such as agriculture allowed for humans to move away from the hunter gatherer nomadic lifestyle and build “permanent” civilizations. One way humans have been able to make life easier for themselves is automation. Humans started automation very early in history, a classic example is the sail. Ancient Egyptian and Nubian art dated as early as 3500 BCE depicts the use of sails to automate travel through the nile river - negating the need for paddles and rowing. The invention of the tractor plays a large role in human history and sets a precedent for how society and the economy reacts to automation. Tractors drastically reduced the number of
In Gershenfeld’s When Things Start to Think, the ultimate way for technology to reach full potential of personal fabrication is through simplicity of structure, as well as efficiency in its ability to create anything. Gershenfeld (1999) states, “big companies use big machines to make things we may not want” demonstrating the unnecessary need for elaborate high cost technology to give society the things they want and need. With these big companies and their machines being the only means to acquire merchanise, it makes it difficult for others to see a different way in obtaining these products in a more basic way. Gershenfeld (1999) provides through research an example of a “3D printer” as an alternative route in cutting out the middleman to establish
In an article by Roxanne Ng during the Fourth United Nations Conference on Women and NGO Forum in Beijing in September 1995, the Canadian government released its gender equality plan entitled, Setting the Stage for the Next Century: stressing that women has different realities, and that the government has finally caught up with feminist movement in recognizing women have many diverse experiences. It also recognizes that research is needed, for example on all aspects of women's health and well - being. In other words, it confirms what women and women's groups have been saying for years: that the gender gap, instead of closing as a result of provisions in our law,
As 3D printers are becoming live in the market, they demonstrate great potential by fostering economic growth. The implications of this revolutionary technology indeed promise to have a radical impact on the may things are produced and business is done. There are
In a recent study(pdf), economists Daren Acemoglu of MIT and Pascual Restrepo of Boston University try to quantify how worried we should be about robots. They examine the impact of industrial automation on the US labor market from 1990 to 2007. They conclude that each additional robot reduced employment in a given commuting area by 3-6 workers, and lowered overall wages by 0.25-0.5%. (Kopf)
At the same time, 3D Printers are getting smaller and smaller, which will make it easier for consumers to have their own machines at home. This changes the old production model. Nowadays, people are allowed to produce whatever they want using a 3D Printer, all they need are the required data and materials. In fact, because of the development of the Internet, it is easier than ever for people to find these resources online. Evans states that:
Sir Roger Penrose, one of the foremost scientists of our time, when faced with a similar problem with regard to the definition of quite something else, viz., consciousness, states in his The Emperor's New Mind: "I do not think that it is wise, at this stage