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I Got Into An Argument About Rick Porcello

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The other day, I got into an argument about Rick Porcello. One person made that argument that if you believe in fWAR, Porcello has been good. He’s been worth 8.4 fWAR over the past 3.5 years or about roughly 2.4 fWAR per year primarily due to a strong FIP and the ability to pitch a lot of innings. If one win costs $7.5 million then paying $20 million per year is a slight but not huge overpay. Writers at Fangraphs have also argued that Porcello is underrated (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-underappreciated-and-evolving-rick-porcello/), that he’s developed nicely into a 3 win player (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/tigers-and-red-sox-swap-cespedes-and-porcello/) that moving to Boston will make him better (http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/three-things-the-red-sox-will-do-for-rick-porcello/) and that he is worth ((http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/rick-porcellos-upcoming-enormous-payday/) roughly $20 million per year (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/red-sox-lock-up-rick-porcello/). Paul Swydan, an author for Fangraphs, wrote an article in the Boston Globe suggesting that Porcello is the thirteenth best pitcher in baseball (https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/12/19/red-sox-really-need-get-ace-pitcher/mSX30HHA8zMnh1jVd0XGmO/story.html). On the other hand, I made the argument that Porcello is a slightly better version of Bud Norris. Let me explain why I made that argument and why just using one number to decide a pitcher is worth $100 million isn’t always the best

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