ASSIGNMENTS FOR LOGISTICS AND SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT STUDENT’S NAME: M DEVADAS BABU / E MAIL ID: devdossb@yahoo.com ASSIGNMENT – MODULE 2 Question: What kind of forecasting methods do you think a company with the following products would use. For each product take up a company of your choice and justify the use of particular forecasting method for that company.
Answer: Forecasting is based on a number of assumptions:
1. The past will repeat itself. 2. As the forecast horizon shortens, forecast accuracy increases. 3. Forecasting in the aggregate is more accurate than forecasting individual items. 4. Forecasts are seldom accurate.
It is through a combination of methods that a company arrives at an
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Moving average will not give an accurate prediction for other less established products, as it gives recent data more importance. A product like Colgate tooth paste which has established itself over the years can afford to adopt Moving Average Technique to arrive at a quick forecast, as the input data would not vary much over a considerable period. However, for more important strategic decisions the suggested method is Exponential Smoothing. | Laptop | Dell | Comparison of the performance of a similar successful product and research on why a particular brand fared poor will give valuable inputs to arrive at a demand forecast. Historical Analogy is the suggested method for this product. In case of a new product launch other qualitative methods may also provide useful inputs for a precise forecast. | Mobile | Nokia | I suggest Historical Analogy for this product. This is a common technique used to generate new product forecasts when a similar product exists. Electronics and telecommunication companies often utilize this technique. E.g. The demand for a new cell phone could be based upon the sales history of an existing model. Qualitative Methods like market research, Delphi technique etc. and causal method like life cycle analysis may be adopted in case of a new product launch. To assess the demand of an existing brand, moving average method and exponential smoothing may also be studied. |
Using the assumptions given in the case, all elements of income statement and balance sheet can be projected for next three years 2010, 2011 and 2012. Sales cycle of the products of the company is such that sales of a particular product increases initially for few years and then starts to decline as the new technology
Forecasting should include the use of both quantitative and qualitative approaches to forecast demand for its products.
* Forecasting is an impartial strategic ingredient that will ensure apt base for reputable planning. Our forecast is always the first step in developing plans in running the business along with our future plans of growth strategies. With this tool, we are able to anticipate our sales within reason that then can allow for us to control our costs in conjunction with inventory which will then help us to enhance our customer service. Sales forecasting is a vital strategic tactic in our company’s methodology.
Questions 1) Prepare a forecast for the first year of operations using the information provided in the case. Clearly identify your assumptions.
| "Dynamic models, usually computer-based, that allow the forecaster to make assumptions about the internal variables and external environment in the model" is a definition for which of the following forecasting methodologies?
Visual Arts 1.1.12.D.1 – Distinguish innovative applications of the elements of arts and principles of design in visual artworks from diverse cultural perspectives and identify cross cultural themes
Forecast Management will also be implemented from Q13 onwards. This would comprise a special unit within the Strategic Planning Division which will closely monitor and analyze the forecasts and trends as it pertains to unit production and price elasticity of demand. While there are many ratios used to analyze and gauge a firm’s performance, The Box Inc. chose five ratios/data points which shall be used as a baseline to the organization’s overall performance. These ratios/data points were chosen as they were seen to give a good indication to how the firm is maintaining its goals of a balance between profits, debt management and shareholder value. The ratios in the table below will be used as a guideline to assist in the organization’s future operations. In order for an organization to progress, it is important to look back at its past performance, see what was done right, what was done wrong and what could be improved. The matrix below, patented by the firm as “The Box Inc.
This paper was prepared for SOC250, Module 1 Homework Assignment taught by Instructor Jesse Kleis.
Forecasting is the methodology utilized in the translation of past experiences in an estimation of the future. The German market presents challenges for forecasting techniques especially for its retail segment. Commercially oriented organizations are used to help during forecasting as general works done by academic scientists are not easy to come across (Bonner, 2009).
Research Reports and Internet Research – The internet is a very easy way to source secondary data that can be extremely useful as it is a good source of industry information. Some information can be available for free like the Australian beau of statistics, newspapers, council and magazines, some help maybe needed in determining the viability of the information and to analyse the results. Other professional research companies like Roy Morgan and Ibisworld will charge a fee for their reports. This may work well with surveys and experiment research as trends or environmental factors in the market could influence consumer consumption therefore giving invaluable information as to what may sell well or is needed in the current market. This method was chosen as it can be easier to obtain and cheaper than the other research methods. It can also provide information on the competition, which would evaluate what products they have been advertising and why.
Maytag formed a cross-functional new product development team to quickly focus the effort. It screened various product ideas and strategies on criteria such as potential for superior customer value, initial costs, long-term growth, social responsibility, and profitability. Using nearly 40 pieces of consumer research, the team refined what the strategy might be and what it would cost. Marketers today have better marketing metrics for measuring the performance of marketing plans. They can use four tools to check on plan performance: sales analysis, market share analysis, marketing expense-to-sales analyss, and financial analysis. Sales analysis consists of measuring and evaluating actual sales in relation to goals. Market share can be measured in three ways. Overal market share is the company's sales expressed as a percentage of total market sales. Served market share is its sales expressed as a percentage of the total sales to its served market. Its served market is all the buyers who are able and willing to buy its product. And relative market share can be expressed as market share in relation to its largest competitor. Annual plan control requires making
Explain how the demand curves for normal products and for prestige products differ, what are demand shifts and why are they important to marketers? How do firms go about estimating demand? How can marketers estimate the elasticity of demand?
M&L Manufacturing Company is an example of a company that could benefit from forecasting. In the past the company has made an educated guess to determine necessary production for
Before, the concept of demand forecast was to serve the key functional groups in achieving their own interest. Facing the new challenges, forecast needed to be more accurate. And therefore it needed a new concept that is to have a consensus forecasting that would accurately reveal market demand and align the needs of key actors in the forecasting process. Leitax implemented two specific changes in forecasting process. The first one is to switch the focus from sell-in to sell-through and second one is to ignore capacity constraints.
Forecasting demand is the art and science of predicting future demand. There are several different techniques that can be employed alone or in combination with each other, depending upon the firm’s particular situation and the point in the product’s life cycle, and they are further classified as to the time horizon they represent. Forecasts are generally quantitative (relying on historical data) or qualitative (such as variable personal experiences).