preview

Making Sense Of The Us Labour Market Essay

Better Essays

Making Sense of the US Labour Market
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) makes no secret that it attaches a higher policy weight to seemingly tight labour market conditions vis-à-vis low inflation readings. Given this bias, therefore, it is essential that the FOMC accurately assesses whether the economy is indeed at full employment. The Fed’s econometric of the US economy embraces the so-called Phillips Curve, a statistical relationship that depicts an inverse relationship between the unemployment rate and wage inflation. Historically, increases in wages were passed on to consumers via higher selling prices. Unsurprisingly, the Phillips Curve’s original statistical relationship was modified and wage inflation was subsequently replaced …show more content…

Interestingly, the numbers of multiple job holders fell during the extremely strong period of economic growth in the late1990s. Arguably, the aforementioned period was effectively a bubble and did not produce “normal” dynamics. Meanwhile, the number of multiple holders needs to be place into context in terms of total employment. Based on this measure, the percentage of multiple job holders within total employment has been falling since the late-1990s. During the current economic cycle, the share of multiple job holders in total employment has been in genteel uptrend since mid-2015. Interestingly, falling numbers of multiple job holders are a leading indicator of recession as the corporate sector seeks to reduce fixed costs to counter deteriorating profitability. The current rising incidence of multiple job holders would, therefore, suggest continued economic growth vis-à-vis imminent recession.
Temporary Help Payrolls Suggest Continued Labour Market Strength
The underlying tone of July’s Employment Situation report released by the BLS erred to the stronger side of expectations. Meanwhile, the FOMC would have taken note that non-farm payrolls are still increasing in excess of the growth in the labour force, thereby placing downward pressure on the unemployment rate. During early-2016, there was a period of labour force growth that was sufficiently robust to prevent further declines in the unemployment rate. This dynamic consequently dissuaded the FOMC from

Get Access