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Niall Ferguson's Argumentative Essay: The First World War

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The First World war is often thought of as the first modern conflict, with modern battles. It was also one of the first examples of total war, whereby a county’s entire economy and workforce was geared towards the war effort. This in turn led to mobilisation on an unprecedented scale meaning that a greater percentage of a nation’s population was in military uniform than ever before. An often overlooked consequence of this is that a great deal of these men ended up as prisoners of war. It is estimated that between eight to nine million were held captive over the whole war, or one in every nine men in uniform. The dangers these men faced is therefore a matter of historical significance. Indeed, it was something that concerned the belligerent …show more content…

First and foremost, men surrender when they feel it is better than the alternative, which is more often than not death. Niall Ferguson applies a variation on game theory to this stating that soldiers weighed up a number of key factors: the likelihood of being killed if they carried on fighting, the likelihood of being killed by one’s in attempting to surrender, the likelihood of being killed by the enemy whilst attempting to surrender and the difference in quality of life between being a prisoner and a soldier. Ferguson’s thesis is that, in World War I, weighing up these options led to far more men surrendering than in World War II. As mass surrender is key in warfare, the First World War was brought to a relatively quick conclusion, as opposed to the Second World War. This model does assume that all actors in the process are rational, which can be called into question when fear takes over in a pitched battle. Ferguson’s thesis has been critiqued in this way by Dollery and Parsons who point out that the political economy cannot be directly transferred to warfare where there are no market factors. What is more, the only theatre in which there was a reluctance to surrender in the Second World War was the Eastern Front. On the whole though, a loose set of considerations which soldiers had to consider before surrendering is viable, but a particular emphasis should be placed on a desire not to be

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