Case Study 1 – Ocean Carriers
1. The Capital Budgeting Decision
Should Ms. Linn purchase the Capesize vessel?
Assume that Ocean Carriers is a U.S. firm and is subject to 35% taxation. (Please see excel sheets)
From our analysis it appears that Ms. Linn should not buy the Capesize vessel. The Net Present Value on the Ocean Carrier is not a positive number, a clear indicator that buying the vessels is not a good idea. The tax rate of 35% makes a lot of difference in determining this NPV. In our calculations we did assume a tax rate on the final sale of the vessel. If it were possible, or known, the tax rate on the salvage it might be more feasible to buy the vessel, and end up with a positive NPV. The effect of taxes on EBIT and
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As we have discussed in class, we can do a sensitivity analysis in order to judge the magnitude of this risk. Please perform a sensitivity analysis for the risk that the analyst may be overestimating, or underestimating the daily hire rate by 2 % each year. Would your decision on this investment change? (Please see excel sheets)
We use sensitivity analysis to avoid the concern that the projected cash flow often goes unmet In practice. Sensitivity analysis is also known as what-if analysis and bop(best, optimistic, and pessimistic) analysis. In this case, we use 2%, a fixed percentage changes in daily hire rate, to perform this analysis. The result tells us that either a positive assumption, 2% increase in daily hire rate, or a pessimistic assumption the investment decision will not change. The investment project doesn’t exhibit wide dispersion.
However, a deviation of a fixed percentage change ignores the fact that some variables are easier to forecast than others, like the project in the down-turn might be easier to forecast. Moreover, sensitivity analysis treats each variable in isolation when the different variables are like to relate. For example, when daily hire rate increase by 2% owing to an unexpected inflation, the daily operation cost may also move together. Therefore, a scenario analysis may
A | Continue operating the cruise ship in the current area. | 10% | $1.0M | $0.9M | $0.7M | $0.7M | $0.7M | $4.0M |
In figure 2, we have varied the prediction accuracy of the law research firm and based on the graph we have come to the conclusion that with associated cost of $ 0.7 million the research firm should have accuracy greater than 0.9 to reduce the expected monetary value than $ 4.5 million
The relatively well posed project with promises of great future pay offs must be examined closely nevertheless to determine its true profitability. As such, the Super Project’s NPV must be calculated, however before we proceed we must acknowledge the relevant cash flows. The project incurred an expense of testing the market. This expense, however, must not be included in our cash flow analysis because it can be considered a sunk cost. This expense is required for ‘taking a temperature’ of the market and will not be recovered. Other sources of cash flow include:
Moreover, Robert Gates’ estimation of the price increase (2.0%) differs from the information provided in the case (1.7%). This overestimates revenue and thereby FCF. To make better projections for the firms’ FCF, Robert Gates would also have to consider the opportunity cost of alternative investments, the risk exposure throughout the project and operational risks after three years.
Sensitivity analysis begins with the base case (or for this analysis, the “most likely case”) developed using expected values for all uncertain variables. The uncertain variables used in this analysis are procedures per day, average net revenue, and building/equipment salvage value.
2. Suppose a customer buys an iPhone from Apple for $500 on January 1, 2010. The cost of the iPhone to Apple is $350. Assume that the customer is entitled to upgrades over the next two years. Use the following financial statement effects template (FSET) to illustrate the financial statement impacts for Apple of the customer's iPhone purchase on the date of the initial purchase and at the end of each of the two years following the initial purchase under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP).
2. Uncertainty/sensitivity analysis: The effects of uncertainty are considered in the profitability analyses. Examples include calculating or discussing the impact of various potential revenue levels on product line profit margins, and applying the probabilities of successfully negotiating postal outlet and lottery booth contracts.
6. Sheryl’s Shipping had sales last year of $16,500. The cost of goods sold was $7,800, general and administrative expenses were $2,300, interest expenses were $1,800, and depreciation was $2,300. The firm’s tax rate is 30%.
If the company is incorporated in the U.S., the NPV will be $-7,836,500.07(US25) after 25 years and will be $-6,395,945.22(US30) after 30 years. Therefore, the U.S. company should not purchase the vessel. If the company is established in Hong Kong, the NPV will be $1,522,472.92(25HK) after 25 years and will be $3,402,293.81(30HK) after 30 years. Therefore the 30 years should be the optimal number of years to operate the carrier before scrapping it after 30 years. In this situation, if the 15-year-selling policy is changed, the company should buy the carrier. For years 26-30, we assume that average daily charter rate is increased by $200 per year. The expected daily hire rate is calculated by multiplying Avg. Daily Charter Rate by adjustment factor for hire rate of 65%.
The senior management of Company A employ you to advise them on the cost of capital the company should use to calculate net present value and decide whether or not to undertake a new investment project. You may assume that the new project is comparable to the average of the company’s existing projects in all respects.
Financial Analysis The sensitivity analysis on IRR provided by the case in Exhibit 9 is demonstrated in Table 3 in Appendix. With reference to the calculated WACC, 11.22%, most of the circumstances considered in the sensitivity analysis suggest the acceptance of the 7E7 project. However, if the air travel demand worsened and sold only 1500 in the first 20 years, the project will be abandoned even if there is a 5% premium in price. If the unit volume sold is equal to
The spreadsheet shows that the new ship would be best utilized on the Tallinn-Helsinki run, where it replace the capacity of three older ships, the Regina Baltica, the Fantaasia and the Vana-Tallinn. The spreadsheet does not factor in the fixed costs associated with each boat, but it is a reasonable assumption that the fixed costs of the three boats that would be sold are going to be higher than the fixed costs associated with the one new boat. It is recommended, therefore to purchase the new ferry as the solver illustrates that the new ferry would deliver greater contribution margin to Tallink than the three older ferries that it would replace.
The present value of the net incremental cash flows, totaling $5,740K, is added to the present value of the Capital Cost Allowance (CCA) tax shield, provided by the Plant and Equipment of $599K, to arrive at the project’s NPV of $6,339K. (Please refer to Exhibit 4 and 5 for assumptions and detailed NPV calculations.) This high positive NPV means that the project will add a significant amount of value to FMI. In addition, using the incremental cash flows (excluding CCA) generated by the NPV calculation, we calculated the project’s IRR to be 28%. This means that the project will generate a higher rate of return than the company’s cost of capital of 10.05%. This is also a positive indication that the company should undertake the project.
Sensitivity analysis allows a change in one particular variable of simulation. This shows how a project is affected by the change. It shows us what can happen in a project with different input
Perhaps the easiest approach to the acquisition of BoatU.S. is to leave BoatU.S.’s current demand and forecast planning untouched and separate from West Marine’s planning processes. This would be inexpensive and non-disruptive to the current corporate culture. The drawbacks, however, could be a slow steady decline in profitability and reliability of the BoatU.S. brand, hence the reason for the acquisition in the first place.