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Ray Fair: The Effect Of Economic Events On Votes For President

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Ray Fair. In his 1978 paper “The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President” develops an empirical model that is used to predict the outcome of U.S based on national economic indicators of the year of the election such as the GNP (Gross National Product), GNP deflator, and unemployment rate. Gross National Product, measures the estimate of total value of all of the final products and service produced in one year by citizens of the country (Gross national Product). GNP deflator is a price index that is used to adjust GNP for inflation (GNP Deflator) . Ray Fair election model is based on the theory of voting behavior where a voter evaluates the current state of the economy using GNP, employment rate and GNP deflator as indicators. Fair,

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