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Role Of Investment And Commercial Banks Play On The Global Economy Essay

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Introduction: This paper will examine the roles that investment and commercial banks play in creating and predicting systemic risk in the global economy. This topic is of particular relevance due to the events that unfolded in the economic sphere nearly a decade ago during the financial crisis of 2007-2008. Our study will provide a detailed rendering of the crisis, outlining each of the key factors that contributed to the crash in an attempt to gain a better understanding of what happened and how to avoid similar events from unfolding in the future. Much of our study hinges on the role of banks on the markets and their influence over global systemic risk. In order to establish a link between bank prices and economic trends, we will focus our analysis on one key metric, Value at Risk (VaR). A powerful statistical measurement, VaR is used to assess a firm’s potential loss over a certain period of time. To generate a diversified and complete quantitative analysis, our calculation will incorporate pricing data from January 1st, 2000 to November 30th, 2016 of eleven of the most prevalent banks in the US financial system: Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Barclays, Citi Bank, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, JP Morgan, Royal Bank of Canada, UBS, and Wells Fargo. Our aim is to establish a predictive correlation between the historical performance of these banks and the markets in order to avoid downturns such as the financial crisis of 2007-08 from happening in the

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