[pic] Guangdong University of Technology School of Management Term Paper of International Business The influence of the RMB appreciation on China’s external trade and countermeasures Group No.: Team 9 谢奇(3211004310) 黄静君(3211004300) 黎启翠(3211004301) 严佳杰(3111004291) 陈伟场(3111004280) June 20th, 2013 Content Abstract 2 Introduction 2 Advantages 2 Disadvantages 3 Measures 4 Conclusion 6 References 6 Abstract: Recently, the appreciation of RMB has been a hot topic and caused a heated debate. For China, it not only involves the changes in the RMB revaluation, but also affects China 's external trade. Through reviewing the RMB …show more content…
In a market economy, the fluctuation of the foreign exchange rate involves the international balance of incomes and expenses and is an important price indicator. The appreciation of the RMB means that the price of various domestic resources, especially land and labor, will go up in relative terms and this will speed up necessary adjustments to the commodity mix and domestic industry. RMB appreciation will gradually change the value of the international and domestic markets. Domestic enterprises will rely more on sales to the domestic market so that national economic growth is less dependent on export demand and a more reasonable industrial structure will form. Secondly, it will promote technical innovation. In many countries, technical innovation relies primarily on a market mechanism which makes good use of price as a lever. China 's production process is enormously costly in terms of resources and energy, and labor is too cheap. The appreciation of the RMB will cause an increase in the domestic prices of such things as land and labor as well stimulate the demand for innovation. Products for export must rely on technological innovation to be more competitive internationally. In the domestic market, enterprises are also forced to compete through technological innovation. Simply speaking, the appreciation of the RMB will cause the formation of a market environment that is conducive to speeding up technological
Inflation in China accelerated in november, as economic growth picked up and food prices rose. Chinese consumers paid 2% more for good and services in november then they did a year ago, the government's national bureau statistics reported on a Sunday. While that up from a 1.7% annual increase in october, it nevertheless represents tame inflation for the world's second largest economy. A year ago the country was experiencing an annual inflation rate at 4%. the Chinese government prefers to keep its annual inflation rate below 4%- a level it seems as consistent with health economic growth and consumer demand. The inflation rate averaged 4.23 percent reaching an all time high of 27.70 percent in october of 1994 and a record low of -2.20 percent in march of 1999. in china the most important components of the CPI basket are food at 31.8 percent of total weight and residence at 17.2 percent. Recreation, education and culture articles account for 13.8 percent; transportation and communication for 10 percent, healthcare and personal articles at 9.6 percent, clothing at 8.5 percent; household facilities, articles and services for 5.6 percent; tobacco liquor and articles for the remaining 3.5 percent. The CPI basket is reviewed every five years on the basis of household surveys. Revisions reflect new spending patterns and economic development, according to the nation bureau of statistics.
Which goes back on how the dollar is back up. Another deal that countries see is that they can also exchange the Yuan which they have, to the federal banks of China into gold since their money is control in a gold standard economy.
China, the largest growing market in the world, currently has a policy regarding monetary regulation that allows the Yuan to “float”. This has seen the Yuan appreciate by approximately 24% over the past few years. Today, the exchange rate between the Chinese Yuan and the American Dollar is approximately 6.3 Yuan to 1 Dollar. Some argue that China should revalue the Yuan again the dollar, establishing a more fixed exchange rate. Others believe that current should allow
The change in the exchange rate policy to move to a more flexible floating exchange rate system will inevitably compromise China’s current advantageous position in trading especially the export which takes a heavy weight in China’s GDP. The appreciation of RMB will deprive the Chinese enterprises of the advantage to leverage the cheap materials and labor to compete in the international market. This might be a positive indication for China’s importers who has a focus on the domestic markets rather than the international market, where the importers’ purchasing power gets enhanced if the domestic currency appreciate. However, China is still heavily relying on export to grow their GDP at this point and a revaluation of RMB would be very dangerous for the country. Thousands of factories counting on exports might be closed and millions of workers would lose their jobs. As pointed out by Morgan Stanley Economist Andy Xie in the case, “China’s priority is stability and currency flexibility should not be allowed to conflict with this goal”. On the flip side though, a revaluation of the RMB would not necessarily change the current situation of US and EU who had a large trade deficit with China. The reduced imports from China are unlikely to stimulate the growth of the domestic productions of those
The purpose of this research report is to provide an overview of China’s economic growth in relation to the long term economic growth drivers. Critical assessment will be made on the growth drivers to determine whether they lead to long term economic growth.
This paper indicates the issue of full convertibility for the Chinese currency, Renminbi(RMB), and its impact on the economy of China. It does not only point out the sequencing of Renminbi’s full convertibility, expounding the detailed concepts procedure of currency convertibility (current account convertibility and capital/financial account convertibility and full convertibility) but also focus on the necessity and challenges will bring to China based on this subject. A review of historical process toward the full convertibility of Renminbi will be provided. There are still various restrictions on capital account convertibility in China. It still takes some
These effective strategies helped Hong Kong overcome the financial crisis. All these facts fully demonstrated that China is a responsible big country. After the Asia financial crisis, the importance of China's economy has been brought into focus; China's neighboring countries have begun to recognize the influence of the Renminbi.
The appreciation of the RMB issue has attracted attention of various circles at home and abroad. By analyzing the current RMB exchange rate appreciation on China’s economic impact at all levels, I will mainly from the industrial structure, export structure, and enterprises to change their operational mechanism, to ease trade tensions and the effectiveness of monetary policy five-pronged approach to analysis; and my final conclusion: RMB exchange-rate appreciation generated by the final result is more positive than negative, impact is positive. In the current context of the appreciation has become a fact, china should actively take the appropriate follow-up measures to stabilize and optimize the economic environment, to minimize possible
Australia has experienced an impressive economic boom in recent years on the back of selling natural resources, including coal and iron ore, to its Asian neighbours, and China accounts for more than a quarter of its exports. So weakness in the Chinese economy is bad news for Australia. Research by consultancy Oxford Economics last week, which modelled the impact of a 10% Chinese devaluation, accompanied by a sharp slowdown, suggested other hard-hit countries could include Brazil, Russia, Chile and Korea. If Beijing allows the yuan to decline further in coming months, it could increase trade tensions, or even a “currency war”, in which the world’s big trading blocs face off in a beggar-thy-neighbour battle to seize the largest possible share
Since the financial tsunami and the bankruptcy of Lehman’s Brother in September 2008, the world’s economy took a deep plunge and the Chinese economy is no exception. In the wake of the global financial crisis, The Economist (2008) reported that China’s real GDP growth slowed to 9 percent in the third quarter of 2008 and export growth slowed to 21.1%. It was, in fact, well below analyst expectations and recent
Furthermore while China does have motivation to keep the value of the yuan down there are downsides. While China has strict regulations they cannot prevent powerful Multinational Enterprises from moving their business and foreign direct investment they bring elsewhere. More importantly it is estimated that the richest one percent of Chinese households hold $2 -5 trillion in property and liquid assets. If the yuan is devalued too much these wealthy could overwhelm China’s vast foreign exchange reserve. (The Economist, 2012)
In recent years, China’s balance of payments always keeps “double favorable balance”. In 2005, China’s national economy developed quickly and stably. The exchange rat of RMB became more flexible. The current account surplus increased obviously and the capital account surplus decreased. The foreign exchange reserve still increased quickly. In 2005, Chinese government did some fiscal policy and monetary policy. Such as decreased government expense, raise the tax rate, used managed floating system, improve the foreign exchange management, enlarged the foreign exchange market. We can conclude that china’s BOP will still keep “double favorable balance” and keep
The US and Europe felt that the RMB was undervalued for several reasons. One reason is that China’s exports had dramatically increased, growing 30% from 2004 to 2005, making China the third largest exporter in the world and accounting for
With China's deepening Opening Up and economic restructure adjustment and the continuous appreciation of RMB in recent years, the
Keith Bradsher's article (2012) about weakness at the Chinese export fair in Guangzhou highlights how different macroeconomic variables can affect international business. Bradsher notes that orders from Europe and North America are down for Chinese exporters. While there is disagreement about the exact cause, there is speculation about several variables. Many Western economies have struggled in the past couple of months as their economies have seen a faltering recovery. In addition, the Chinese renminbi is on a long-run appreciation, meaning that the Chinese exporters are starting to see their competitiveness reduced. A third factor is domestic to China, where wages and rents are rising quickly in key manufacturing areas such a Guangdong Province, the area around Shanghai and the Yangtze delta and the area around Beijing. At times, workers and rents are rising more quickly than the yuan is appreciating, setting the course for the long-run appreciation of the currency against the dollar.