The Black Swan The Impact Of The Highly Improbable Summary

Kathryn Schulz argues in “Evidence”, a chapter of her book called Being Wrong, that we need to “learn to actively combat our inductive biases: to deliberately seek out evidence that challenges our beliefs, and to take seriously such evidence when we come across it” (Schulz, 377”). By attending to counterevidence we can avoid making errors in our conclusions.

Figurative language is a strategy that authors have used over the years to give the reader different perspectives on the piece that they are reading about. In her short Story, “The Lottery”, Shirley Jackson writes about a small town that has a tradition known as the lottery. The way that the lottery works, is that there is black box with pieces of paper in it. The pieces of paper have the family names of every family in town. The last name standing then has to go into an elimination round with the people within the family. Each family member draws out of the black box, and the family member that pulls the slip of paper with the black dot gets stoned to death. In her short story, Jackson utilizes symbolism in the form of Old Man Warren, the black box and the pile of stones to demonstrate how tradition can be blinding without even knowing it.

He explains why UCTs are as popular as they are in modern society, and why people should nevertheless disregard and approach them with caution. What Keeley refers to as “virtues” are the reason for the popularity of UCTs. He gives the virtue of explanatory reach as the first and main reason for UCTs popularity, which is the account of all knowledge including errant data. This is in stark contrast to the received theory, which is imperfect by nature. This quality of UCTs is particularly attractive because it appeals to human rationality by allowing for no loopholes. Keely argues that errant data alone is not significant enough, and that a theory should never fit all of the data. This leads into one of the main points, concerning falsifiability and skepticism. Unfalsifiability is acceptable when the item or person under investigation is not actively trying to escape from the investigator. Keeley contends that the problem is not the innate unfalsifiability, but rather the increasing amount of skepticism required. Keely seeks a hole in the concept of conspiracy theories that accounts for a person’s innate sense that belief in a particular conspiracy theory is not justified. In the case of the natural sciences, falsifiability is acceptable because of the rigorous protocols in place, and therefore, we are warranted in believing scientific claims.

Although two different stories, with multiple differences in conflict and setting, “The Lottery” by Shirley Jackson and “The Most Dangerous Game” by Richard Connell bear multiple similarities as well. Both stories demonstrate how humans are portrayed as evil vs. good. Each story depicts a protagonist exhibiting conflict with another human or humans. One ends on a dark gloomy path for the protagonist while the other results in a victory for the protagonist.

Dystopian stories works depict a negative view of "the way the world is supposedly going in order to provide urgent propaganda for a change in direction”. Often these stories have many themes that can relate to the real world. In the dystopian story “The Lottery” written by Shirley Jackson, many themes such as false hopes,hypocrisy, ritual, and mob mentality are expressed throughout the story. In the story everyone in a small village gather in the town square for the lottery, whoever gets chosen gets stoned to death by everyone in the town including friends and loved ones. The use of different themes throughout the story relate to the literary devices and universal storytelling elements setting, verbal irony, symbolism, and social cohesion.

Lawrence Reed is an Austrian economist who holds a Master of Arts in history from Slippery Rock University of Pennsylvania. He served as a professor of economics at Northwood University in Michigan from 1977 to 1984, chairing the department for his last three years. He then moved into the world of think tanks, becoming president of the Mackinac Center for Public Policy. He stayed in that job for twenty years before assuming the presidency of the Foundation for Economic Education. He holds honorary doctorates from Central Michigan University and Northwood University.

Many times we have been in a dilemma whether to believe or not someone who tries to persuade us for something and very often by listening his arguments and by having enough evidence we finally manage to get out of the dilemma. Nevertheless sometimes we cannot be sure about an event because although there is enough evidence, our minds cannot be persuaded. An example to justify that is the existence of the Loch Ness monster, or as it is widely known “Nessie”.

Evidence is concrete examples of raw materials – how we interpret them is an important key when studying history. Evolution and the Kennewick Man will be discussed.

Two major disasters that shocked the world included the sinking of the Titanic and the Chicago Fire which destroyed almost the whole city. The sinking of the Titanic, known as the "unsinkable ship", killed more than one thousand five hundred people making this a mind-blowing event when it tragically sunk. (NY Daily News) Another horrific event was the Chicago Fire. The Fire was so devastating that it killed up to three hundred people, destroyed a little over three square miles of Chicago, and left more than one hundred thousand people homeless. (Wonderopolis) Additionally, the fire "burned an area of four miles long and one mile wide" which in its path "destroyed seventeen thousand five hundred buildings and seventy-three miles of

Sickness times a thousand equals the Black Death. In our world, many disasters have occurred, causing terrible damage emotionally, physically, and mentally. However, I believe that the Black Death is the worst disaster to have occurred throughout our world’s history. It all started in 1348, when trading ships from different countries around Europe settled at the port of Messina, Sicily. Once the ship dropped their anchor many of their sailors were found dead, and the few surviving carried with them the deadly disease so dangerous that it would quickly lead to death. Scientists researched and concluded that the disease started from Central Asia (Mongolia), when fleas on rats boarded the many ships from Europe. The fleas got on the sailors’ skin and started killing them instantly. However, many thought that the disease had originated from the Far East and was spread along many major trade routes. When the people of Sicily finally started finding out what was causing the death, they closed their port and trading system with other countries. (Wikipedia) The ships were forced to anchor somewhere else in other countries, which allowed the disease to spread even more quickly. I believe that the Black Plague was a disastrous event that affected all aspects and the future of European and Central Asian society, their political and economic environment, and their future advancement to medicine.

As if we do not have enough evidence based on critical and social/historical interpretation of

The Titanic may be one of the most famous and well known shipwrecks of our time. Just about everyone learns of the tragedy in school and how it was a complete accident. Information has been found that point to the tragedy not being what we think it is. There is evidence that shows that the ship thought to be the Titanic may actually be named the Olympic, and may have been used in an insurance scam. This evidence includes pictures showing different amounts of port holes and even people working on the ship coming forward. It has yet to be proven if this is 100% true, but most would agree that all of this points to it being true.

On April 14,1912 a great ship called the Titanic sank on its maiden voyage. That night there were many warnings of icebergs from other ships. There seems to be a conflict on whether or not the warnings reached the bridge. We may never know the answer to this question. The greatest tragedy of all may be that there were not

“personal assertion of existential meaning in a universe of potential cosmic meaninglessness” (Mast, 246). In the adventure films and Westerns, heroes are willing to challenge authority for their personal beliefs and feelings. They take actions based on individual beliefs, definitions of right and wrong, and the urge to complete their personal goals and dreams. The helpless antiheroes in screwball comedies present the situation during the Great Depression from another aspect. They cannot make choices themselves because of others’ intervention, and unfortunate things just happen to them. The denial of humanness is one feature of antiheroes. Powerlessness of antiheroes in the ridiculous world definitely reflects the desperate situation faced by the Americans during the Great Depression.

Knowledge is considered accurate when there is sufficient evidence that it is the truth. Over time, methods of verifying the accuracy of knowledge change. As learners, we often equate accuracy with the value of knowledge, however, the value of accuracy is dependent on the area of knowledge under consideration. Today, accuracy in the natural sciences is vital as any error can be catastrophic. In 1986, a flawed reactor and human error caused the Chernobyl disaster that exposed millions to radiation and had significant long term impacts. However in history, complete “accuracy” is almost unattainable. As historians cannot first-hand experience past events, they can only try to make connections with available sources to suggest what happened