RESEARCH PROJECT PROPOSAL 2014/2015
‘Analysis of the current recessions impact on the residential mortgage market in the United Kingdom’
ROSS TYLER WHITING
N0313007
This Research Project Proposal is submitted in part-fulfillment of the degree of BSc (Hons) in Planning and Development
Nottingham Trent University, 2015
CONTENTS PAGE
1.0 WORKING TITLE
2.0 INTRODUCTION
3.0 RESEARCH GOALS
4.0 LITERATURE REVIEW
5.0 METHODOLOGY
6.0 DATA
7.0 LIMITATIONS
8.0 SUMMARY
1. WORKING TITLE
1.1 Analysis of the current recessions impact on the residential mortgage market in the United Kingdom.
2. AIM
2.1 The
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4.4 What response has the mortgage market given to these consequences?
4.5 What has been done to deal with any impacts caused by the current recession on the mortgage market?
5. RATIONALE
5.1 The rationale behind this research project title is due to work experience undertaken over a fourteen-month period within the residential sales market, working closely with mortgages. The above working title is of interest due to many property transactions within the placement year not completing due to the unavailability of mortgages within the UK.
5.2 The motivation behind this research project comes from the current issues within the mortgage market, such as the decline of the availability of mortgages and affordability issues. As within a future career in developing these could be crucial factors to a development.
5.3 Furthermore, within the built environment the economic climate is a crucial topic that can affect both supply and demand of residential housing, and can have direct effects upon the availability of funds to develop.
6. CRITICAL LITERATURE REVIEW
6.1 A Critical Literature review will be undertaken to explore the existing literature relating to the recessions consequences and impacts upon the mortgage market.
6.2 Consequences of the current recession
Scanlon & Whitehead discuss the fall in the number of transactions within the housing market and how prices began to fall in December 2007 (Scanlon
During the early 2000 's, the United States housing market experienced growth at an unprecedented rate, leading to historical highs in home ownership. This surge in home buying was the result of multiple illusory financial circumstances which reduced the apparent risk of both lending and receiving loans. However, in 2007, when the upward trend in home values could no longer continue and began to reverse itself, homeowners found themselves owing more than the value of their properties, a trend which lent itself to increased defaults and foreclosures, further reducing the value of homes in a vicious, self-perpetuating cycle. The 2008 crash of the near-$7-billion housing industry dragged down the entire U.S. economy, and by extension, the global economy, with it, therefore having a large part in triggering the global recession of 2008-2012.
The recent mortgage crisis in the US was unprecedented. It led to a massive clampdown of financial institutions, occasioning one of the worst financial melt-downs the US has ever faced (Jaffe, 2008). Quite naturally, it would be necessary to examine the cause of the crisis in order to draft prophylactic measures that would prevent the same financial disaster in the future. This paper will discuss the events that led to the mortgage crisis.
In the lead up to the current recession, when the real estate market began to fall, there were so many investors shorting stocks and securitized mortgage packages that were already falling, that the market simply fell further. There were no buyers at the bottom, and the professional investors made millions off of the losses of others. Beyond this, there was no real federal regulation for securitized mortgages, since there was no real way to gauge the mathematical risk of any given package. This allowed the investors to take advantage of the system and to short loans on real people’s homes. Once these securities were worthless, many of the homebuyer’s defaulted on their mortgages and were left penniless. No matter from which angle this crisis is looked at, the blame rests squarely with the managers who began the entire cycle, the ones who pursued the securitization of mortgages. Their incompetence not only led to the losses of Americans who have never invested in the stock market, but to losses for their shareholders.
The financial crisis emerged because of an excessive deregulation of business operation of financial institutions and of abusing the securitization mechanism in the absence of clearly defined rules to regulate this area in the American mortgage market (Krstić, Jemović, & Radojičić, 2013). Deregulation gives larger banks the opportunity to loosen underwriting lender guidelines and generate increase opportunity for homeownership (Kroszner & Strahan, 2013). After deregulation, banks utilized many versions of mortgage loans. Mortgage loans such as subprime and Alternative-A paper loans became available for borrowers challenged to find mortgage lenders before deregulation (Elbarouki, 2016; Palmer, 2015). The housing market has been severely affected by fluctuating interest rates and the requirement of large down payment (Follain, & Giertz, 2013). The subprime lending crisis has taken a toll on the nation’s economy since 2007. Individuals who lacked sufficient credit ratings or down payments resorted to subprime mortgages to finance their homes Defaults on subprime and other mortgages precipitated the foreclosure crisis, which contributed to the recent recession and national financial crisis (Odetunde, 2015). Subprime mortgages were appropriate for borrowers with substandard credit and Alternate-A paper loans were
The mortgage crisis we are experiencing in the United States today is already ranking as among the most serious economic events since the Great Depression of the 1930’s. Hardly a day goes by without a story in the newspaper or on the cable news stations reporting about the increase in the number of foreclosures across the United States. The effects of this crisis have spread across all financial markets, where in the end all of us are paying a price for this home mortgage crisis. When the housing market collapsed, so did the availability of credit which our economy depends upon. The home mortgage crisis, the financial crisis and overall economic crisis all need to address by the
Macroeconomics is an excellent tool for the analysis of the housing industry as something like a capital good, as a home is considered to be, cannot easily be studied in a short-term platform. Real estate is a good that costs several times more than an average persons annual income, in the United States that number is typically 7 times as much, and in the United Kingdom that number is 14 times as much. Several factors of both supply and demand directly impact the housing market on a macroeconomic scale. (Business Economics, 1)
Big banks in the middle 2000s were flourishing of the money made from selling the mortgages to big investors. While this was great when the banks were giving money to people who were reliable and were going to pay their mortgages every month. And when the investors were making such a hefty profit they wanted more. This is when Subprime mortgages were widely used, giving less reliable lower credit scores the opportunity to get homes. The banks knew that these people would not necessarily always be able to pay, which was the one of many mistakes (Crash Course.) The banks learned that while it did sometimes work out, the consequences of giving out too many unreliable mortgages can bring the whole nations economy down for the housing market has always been the pillar of the economy. The greed of the extremely wealthy continued to overpower the common sense of the
In the U.S., the rate of home foreclosure is gradually increasing each year, which means that there are fewer homeowners. Even though it is the duty of the banks ' to make sure that prospective clients can purchase the ideal home and pay off their mortgages, it is the role of potential homeowners’ to conduct research on a range of homes that are within their price range that will not result in foreclosure. The increase of home foreclosures places the economy under a great strain in order to maintain foreclosed property.
With the looming threat of an economic recession, action needs to be taken to try to minimize the potential damage. Subprime loans to finance mortgage-backed securities have brought instability to the real estate market. Banks have had to implement tighter lending standards to residential mortgages to try to offset this instability (“FBR-Beige Book – Summary,” 2007). Though several banks have reported tighter credit conditions on the commercial real estate market, credit availability and credit quality remained promising for most borrowers (“FBR-Beige Book – Summary,” 2007). Besides the turbulence in the real estate market, uncertainty in other financial markets have had a minimal effect on recent economic activity (“FBR-Beige Book – Summary,”
The recent conduct of many professionals in the industry has come under considerable scrutiny as their reckless, insensitive behavior created turmoil which ultimately led to the financial catastrophe. This behavior mobilized the government/ congress into action. Strict guidelines were put in place. The paradigm shift has altered and changed the way the mortgage industry operates or conduct mortgage loan financing (business). The parameters implemented have incorporated the three levels of planning; namely, mega, macro, and micro.
The “Great Recession” is commonly used to explain the massive economic contraction that occurred in the United States during the fourth quarter of 2007. However, the actions of the United States spanned to other nations, leaving massive effect on the global economy. One nation that took on serious financial burden during this recession was the United Kingdom. This nation first faced the effects of the Great Recession beginning in the first quarter of 2008. Overall, the initial mass effects on the nation can be attributed to the nation’s reliance on the financial sector. In fact, after partially stabilizing in 2009, the country struggled with a double-dip recession between 2010-12, and continues to struggle with some of these effects.
One of the first indications of the late 2000 financial crisis that led to downward spiral known as the “Recession” was the subprime mortgages; known as the “mortgage mess”. A few years earlier the substantial boom of the housing market led to the uprising of mortgage loans. Because interest rates were low, investors took advantage of the low rates to buy homes that they could in return ‘flip’ (reselling) and homeowners bought homes that they typically wouldn’t have been able to afford. High interest rates usually keep people from borrowing money because it limits the amount available to use for an investment. But the creation of the subprime mortgage
An increase in loan packaging, marketing and incentives encouraged borrowers to undertake difficult mortgages so they believed that they would be able to refinance quickly at more favourable terms. People borrowed money to buy the house and then expected the price to rise and sold so that they could pay off the debt which owed to the bank and demanded a new loan to buy another house. However, once the interest rate began to rise and house’s price dropped in 2007, refinancing became more difficult and banks could not collect their mortgages.
Modell, J., 2008, The Impact of the Subprime Mortgage Crisis on European Banks, retrieved March 13, 2012 from
On a broader level, we are six years into a recovery in the housing market that is likely to last for a considerable amount of time (Nikolais, 2014). Although we are seeing a rise in demand, and have been very busy as of late, there are always areas in which we can improve. Recent trends in technology have reshaped the way businesses are