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The General Theory of Unemployment, Interest, and Money

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These games can be played with zest and enjoyment, though all the players know that it is the Old Maid which is circulating, or that when the music stops, some of the players will find themselves unseated. J. M. Keynes, The General Theory of Unemployment, Interest and Money (1953: 1991, p. 156) When Chuck Prince said Citi had to 'keep dancing' (Reuters 2010), he was likely referring to Keynes' "beauty contest," where each player has to guess what the other players' reactions will be regardless of the intrinsic value of a particular 'card.' If uncertainty is increased, say in Keynes' example there was a second Old Maid introduced into the game, players' willingness to trade a known card for an unknown card would be reduced, because of the increased risk the unknown card would be one of the two Old Maids where there was only one before. The resulting increase in risk from the enhanced desire to get rid of the losers combined with the unwillingness of those without losers causes the desire to cash out before getting stuck with the bad card. The competition ultimately resolves not around finding winners, but in dumping the 'hot potato.' Imagine if we added a condition where any card could be the Old Maid, as revealed by a new draw every round. The result is extreme unwillingness to take new cards on part of every player holding cards of actual value. This game does not even require novice investors but "can be played by professionals among themselves" (Keynes 1953/ 1991, p.

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