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The Issue Of Nuclear Weapons

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In 1994, Ukraine agreed to give up its nuclear weapons to become a member of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. By 1996, all 5,000 of them were removed from its borders and disassembled in Russia. Today, Eastern Ukraine is under attack by Russian forces. This paper will explore the extent that nuclear weapons could have played in affecting Russia’s decision to carry out its invasion of sovereign Ukrainian territory. To begin, it should be understood that this analysis focuses on alternative possibilities and therefore impossible to prove or disprove. Instead, this should be viewed as a play on facts and behaviors of the states involved and applies arguments made by different theorists regarding nuclear weapons. The big question that needs answering is whether or not Russia would have invaded Ukraine if Ukraine still had nuclear weapons. To address this, some facts need expressing. First, had Ukraine not liquidated its nuclear weapons, it would have been the third largest stockpile in the world after the United States and Russia. Second, when looking at the five nuclear power states – US, UK, France, Russia, and China – no major nuclear power has gotten into a nuclear war with another major nuclear power. Nor have they engaged in a direct conflict involving conventional weapons. They have come close, as seen in the Cuban Missile Crisis, but they have not traded nuclear missiles or bombs with each other. The only two states that have been in conflict with each other and have

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