Generally to predict the future weather information we have to use the past weather reports. Todays weather may not exactly match with weather of the same day in the privous year. The probability that the weather condition of the day in consideration will match the same day in previous year is very less. But the probability that it will match within the span of adjacent fortnight of previous year is very high.So we can take the adjacent fortnights weather report into consideration to predict the current day weather. To predict the future’s weather condition, the variation in the conditions in past years must be utilized. There are various approaches available in weather forecasting, from relatively simple observation of the sky to highly …show more content…
Artificial neural network was combined with the genetic algorithm to get the more optimized prediction . An improved technique that uses artificial neural network with photovoltaic system was proposed by Isa et al.that utilizes perceptron model with Levenberg Marquardt algorithm. Apart from neural network Fuzzy logic has also been being used in weather prediction models. The rainfall was classified into three fuzzy sets which can be predicted by making use of simple fuzzy rules . Also a fuzzy self-regression model was proposed by Lu Feng and Xu xiao Guang which makes use of the form of self-related sequence number according to observed number. The self-related coefficients were computed by making use of Fuzzy Logic . A combined approach of neural network with Fuzzy Logic is being proposed for the weather prediction system. The work has applied principle component analysis technique to the fuzzy data by making use of Autoassociative neural networks.
But the main problem with the methods discussed above is most of they don’t provide any mathematicalrelationship between different parameters. Data not been being mathematically described and analyzed. But a mathematical model that could represent the relationship among previous data that could be used for prediction is still desired. A new sliding window approach for the same is being proposed in this text for weather prediction.
History of Weather Forecasting:
Weather forecasting is the application of science and
The concept of statistics is useful and necessary in many situations that we encounter on our daily life. Every morning when you walk out from your house do you wonder, what the weather will be like today, for the week or even for the month? Meteorologist use computer models that are built using statistics to help predict the future of the weather. Their main function is to gather and study data from past weather and identify the best indicators that will prognosticate a more accurate weather forecast. Using these statistical procedures are a great way to calculate the maximum temperature that will be on a specific day and place. By gathering together the wind velocity, direction, the amount of humidity, and cloudiness you can use this data
What are some of the methods used to study weather patterns? Do you think the data collected can help to predict future climatic conditions?
The atmosphere is a chaotic system, so small changes to one part of the system can grow to have large effects on the system as a whole. This makes it difficult to accurately predict weather more than a few days in advance, though weather forecasters are continually working to extend this limit through the scientific study of weather, meteorology. It is theoretically impossible to make useful day-to-day predictions more than about two weeks ahead, imposing an upper limit to potential for improved prediction skill.
Authors use a variety of literary techniques and motifs to engage their readers and at times to create an environment of intrigue. These techniques enhance and broaden the reading experience, and allows the reader create a mindset upon which the story unfolds. Gabriel García Márquez utilizes the motif of weather in the novella Chronicle of a Death Foretold to symbolize the other characters’ beliefs on if Santiago Nasar is guilty or innocent of the crime Angela Vicario accuses him of. When recalling the day of the tragic event, there does not seem to be one definite answer. “No one was certain if he was referring to the state of the weather. Many people coincided in recalling that it was a radiant morning with a sea breeze coming in through
Although meteorologist hardly acknowledge that their forecasts are not completely accurate, it is clear that without them the amount of harm would be great. The information of a possible tornado formation helps the public become prepared to the possibility of a tornado. Tornadoes warning systems have come a long way from the days where they were inaccurate and unreliable. Lead times have increased and are becoming more reliable. However, more sensitive technology is needed until forecasts can become more
Since the beggining of time, man has always been curious about its surroundings. But, as time changes so do the techniques and technology used by curious investigators. Weather satellites have proved the most useful technology in the passages because they can gather information about on coming weather, they can save lives, and they are a tool that works well with other weather calculating instruments that allow for a better prediction of approaching weather and storms.
Predicting what the weather is like before taking measurements gives me a better understanding on how well I used my senses to predict the weather. I learned to always search for the answers based on my perspective of the weather. As a result, I could see how close the measurements are to my own observations. When I discover similar results, it becomes clear that I can understand weather if I train myself to know it. Based on my observations, I learn to go outside, observe the sky, take measurements, and find out the results of my experiment. Therefore, I can give conclusions about the seasons, seeing how the temperature, wind direction, air velocity, and relative humidity change within a given season for a specific
There are already mechanisms in place that are used to predict high and low years for weather temperatures and rainfall. In 1997, prior to the El Nino in 1997-1998 (called El Nino 97/98), the scientific community was able to surveil and predict its occurrence, thus giving weather researchers and their science, credibility by the public and those who make decisions. (Below is a historical table of all recorded El Nino events).
We all have that one friend or family member that proudly claims to be an expert in predicting the rainy days or the sudden change in weather conditions, especially in moments when not even the meteorology institutions can precisely forecast the weather changes.
A meteorologist typically becomes a weather forecaster for the local news. In order to accurately forecast the upcoming weather, they must gather and interpret data. They use tools to measure the temperature, humidity, pressure, wind speed, rainfall, and air pressure. They also warn people at home about severe weather conditions in the surrounding areas, as well as live forecasts of current weather conditions. A meteorologist needs to be confident and willing to try new
In today's time, we don't need to think much about the weather. All we have to do is open up the weather app on our smartphones or turn on the weather channel on the TV and we willl be able to know if we need to put on a sweater or start to prepare our canned food and water bottles for a hurricane coming in a week. What we really don't think about, is how complicated weather prediction realy is. A long time ago, there were no satellites showing detailed weather reports. It wasn't until 1943 when Colonel Joe Duckworth discovered that he could fly through a stom that people began to know when a large storm was coming. Hurricane hunting and weather satellites were a huge advancement in technology that greatly helped researchers find more detailed
From weather we can have a BBQ this weekend to weather we can go sledding. People aren’t sure what weather sources are predicting the weather correctly. Many people use the weather channel. TV forecasts are the ones that over predict the most.
To start with, the 1st model used is regression line method. According to this method, the technique fits a trend line to a series of historical data point and the projects the line into the future for medium to long range forecasts
Weather has a way of making people feel a certain way, by affecting their mood. Bright and sunny weather tends to make people happier, while dull and dreary weather brings about less appealing emotions, such as grumpiness, sadness, or fear. Tornado weather, especially in tornado alley, is a source of emotion. For many people living in tornado alley, tornado season offers a mix of fear and excitement. However, for most, when the tornado is actually present, fear tends to take over and the excitement is lost. The tornado that occured on May 20th, 2013 was a great example of how a tornado can turn from exhilirating to terrifying.
The remainder of this paper is structured as follows next section describes the problem formulation, Section-III reviews the related work done. Section IV presents the proposed fuzzy genetic algorithm. In Section V the experiments and results of the previous and this study were analyzed and compared, Section VI presents the conclusions drawn from the proposed modified FGA.