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- On Monday, a certain stock closed at $10 per share. Before the stock market opens on Tuesday, you expect the stock to close at $9, $10, or $11 per share, with respective probabilities 0.3, 0.3, and 0.4. Looking ahead to Wednesday, you expect the stock to close 10 percent lower, unchanged, or 10 percent higher than Tuesday’s close, with the following probabilities. Tuesday's Close 10 Percent Lower Unchanged 10 Percent Higher $9 0.4 0.3 0.3 10 0.2 0.2 0.6 11 0.1 0.2 0.7 Early on Tuesday, you are directed to buy 100 shares of the stock before Thursday. All purchases are made at the end of the day, at the known closing price for that day, so your only options are to buy at the end of Tuesday or at the end of Wednesday. You wish to determine the optimal strategy for whether to buy on Tuesday or defer the purchase until Wednesday, given the Tuesday closing price, to minimize the expected purchase price. Develop and evaluate a decision tree. a-1. Determine the optimal…Rollo Megabux has $1 million to invest in stocks orbonds. The percentage yield on each investment during thecoming year depends on whether the economy has a goodor a bad year (see Table 17). It is equally likely that theeconomy will have a good or a bad year.a If Rollo is risk-neutral, how should he invest hismoney?b For $10,000, Rollo can hire a consulting firm toforecast the state of the economy. The consulting firm’sforecasts have the following properties:P(good forecast|economy good) .80P(good forecast|economy bad) .20Should Rollo hire the consulting firm? What are EVSIand EVPI? Economy EconomyHas Good Has BadYear YearYield on stocks 22% 10%Yield on bonds 16% 14%Fred has been told that diversifying his investments will significantly reduce risk. He hastherefore invested in two stocks. His portfolio consists of a $1 500 000 investment in DrugsLimited and $750 000 invested in shares of Pharmaceuticals Limited.Economy Probability ReturnsDrugs Limited PharmaceuticalsLimitedBoom 0.4 12% 19%Normal 0.5 8% 11%Recession 0.1 2% -4% i. What is the expected return on Fred’s portfolio? ii. Advise Huron as to the effectiveness of his diversification strategy.
- Using Excel Spreadsheet and formulas for this problem (make sure cell references are unique to your table). Provide all techniques practiced previously: five (5) techniques for Decisions Making under Uncertainty, EMV, EOL, and EVPI. Use α = 0.7 for the Hurwicz. Use the .50 for the probability of a Good Economy and .50 for the probability of a Poor Economy. Show the work on an Excel file. STATE OF NATURE DECISION ALTERNATIVE GOOD ECONOMY POOR ECONOMY Sotck market 80,000 -20,000 Bonds 30,000 20,000 CDs 23,000 23,000In a financial investment scenario, what is the probability of a given stock's return exceeding a certain threshold, based on historical data, market trends, and other relevant factors, and how can this information be used to optimize portfolio allocation and risk management strategies?When forming the objectives and constraints part of the IPS, a portfolio manager must consider ability and willingness to take risk. Explain what is meant by these terms and how the manager can accommodate these risks
- Limitations of Portfolio analysis is Naively following the prescriptions of a portfolio model may actually reduce corporate profits if they are used inappropriately that have caused some companiesto reduce their use of this approach.Why?Answer the following questions: Difference between systematic and unsystematic risk Risk free return= 10%, Market return= 14% beta value=1.5, calculate the required return of asset by using CAPM. Residual theory of dividend with exampleJack is a 40-year-old construction worker. He makes $33,500 per year. He only saves 5 percent of his salary per year since it is all he feels he can afford. His friend Joe suggests that he invest his money conservatively so that it won’t lose as much value if the market takes a nosedive. His other friend Jim thinks that investing aggressively with high risk is the way to go since Jack has several years to work to make up for any losses. What do you suggest to Jack? Why?
- If a project’s stand-alone, corporate, and market risk are known tobe highly correlated, would this make the task of evaluating theproject’s risk easier or harder? Explain.Scenario Your corporation has just approved an 8-year expansion plan to grow its market share. The plan requires an influx of cash in each of the 8 years. Management wants to develop a financial plan to ensure the cash needed for the expansion will be available at the beginning of each of the 8 years. The corporation has the following investment options: Security Price per unit Return Rate (%) Years to Maturity 1 $1,200 10.255 5 2 $1,000 6.7550 6 3 $1,175 12.110 7 Savings Account 5.500 Each unit of security 1, 2, and 3 guarantees to pay $1,000 at maturity. Investments in these securities must take place only at the beginning of year 1 and will be held until maturity. Any funds not invested in securities will be invested in a savings account that pays the annual interest rates noted above. The following table summarizes the cash needs for the expansion plan for each of the 8 years: Year 1 = $250,000 Year 5 = $295,000…Suppose that you want to invest $10,000 in the stock market by buying shares in one of two companies: A and B. Shares in company A though risky, could yield a 50% return on investment during the next year. If the stock market if conditions are not favorable (bear market) the stock may lose 20% of it value. Company B provides safe investments with 15% return in a bull market and only 5% in a bear market Ali the applications you have consulted are predicting a 60% chance for a bull market and 40% for a bear market. Where you invest your money? Construct a decision tree.