1. Last fall, with a less aggressive variant and mask mandates, the asymptomatic positivity rate was 3.6%. This means that 3.6% of people were positive and contagious, but never realized it or had it confirmed. A randomly selected person then has a 96.4% chance (probability = 0.964), of being covid-negative. But, in Science Fiction, you are sitting in a class with 45 people. What is the probability that no one in your Science Fiction class is actually positive? P = 0.96445 = ??? 2. You likely attend 3-4 classes, and likely encounter a combination of at least 200 students and faculty in closed spaces over a period of 2 days. Most of them are now unmasked. What is the probability that none of those 200 students and faculty are actually positive? 3. The probability of catching an omicron variant through repeated exposures in the absence of masking is ½ or 0.50. Although some estimates are much higher, a reasonable estimate is that 1 in 8 people suffer from long covid.Using these numbers and assumptions, what is the probability of a given student contracting long covid, thereby endangering their ability to complete a semester?
1. Last fall, with a less aggressive variant and mask mandates, the asymptomatic positivity rate was 3.6%. This means that 3.6% of people were positive and contagious, but never realized it or had it confirmed.
A randomly selected person then has a 96.4% chance (
What is the probability that no one in your Science Fiction class is actually positive?
P = 0.96445 = ???
2. You likely attend 3-4 classes, and likely encounter a combination of at least 200 students and faculty in closed spaces over a period of 2 days. Most of them are now unmasked. What is the probability that none of those 200 students and faculty are actually positive?
3. The probability of catching an omicron variant through repeated exposures in the absence of masking is ½ or 0.50. Although some estimates are much higher, a reasonable estimate is that 1 in 8 people suffer from long covid.Using these numbers and assumptions, what is the probability of a given student contracting long covid, thereby endangering their ability to complete a semester?
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