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- Do rational expectations tend to look back at past experience while adaptive expectations look ahead to the future? Explain your answer.Consider the expectations adjusted Phillips’s curve and assume that expected inflation is given by πet = πt-1. Suppose that unemployment is initially equal to the natural rate and that π=10%. The central bank decides that inflation is too high and that, starting in year t, it will maintain the unemployment rate 1% point above the natural rate until the inflation rate has decreased to 2%. (a) What is the sacrifice ratio in this economy [Hint: the sacrifice ratio is the percentage of a year’s excess unemployment needed to reduce inflation by 1%. For a Philips curve given as πet − πt −1 = −α (ut − un ), the sacrifice ratio is 1/α]? (b) Compute the rate of inflation for year t, t+1, t+2, t+3, …, t+8. (c) For how many years must the central bank keep the unemployment rate above the natural rate of unemployment? Is the implied sacrifice ratio consistent with your answer to (a)?(i) Discuss the Lucas Critique. (ii) With the help of a diagram, show the implications of Rational Expectations for the Phillips curve.
- Using the inflation-unemployment version of the Phillips curve with adaptive expectations, ifaggregate demand increasesA)workers will realize that inflation has changed in the long run but not in the short run.B)the SRPC will immediately shift to the right as workers expect higher pricesC)workers will mistakenly work less, resulting in a decrease in inflation and increase inunemploymentD)actual inflation will be less than expected inflation, resulting in workers mistakenly workingmore and unemployment falling.a) Explain the concept of the natural rate of unemployment using the expectations-augmented (modified or modern) Phillips curve model. b) Why is this model useful for policy-makers?A. What assumptions did Thomas Sargent make when he claimed that inflation is always and everywhere a fiscal phenomenon?" B. Why is it appropriate in the book's short-term model for the author to use the Phillips Curve as an Aggregate Supply curve? Does it capture the working of the labor market as well as an AS curve based, say, on sticky wages? C. Provide an example of the book's short-run model being based on "microfoundations."
- Consider the expectations augmented Phillips curve model. Suppose that we are starting from long - runequilibrium with a central bank which cares a lot about unemployment and relatively little about inflation.a) Draw and carefully label the graph of this situation. b) Explain where the Phillips curve comes from inthis model. c) Explain why the equilibrium you specify is the only Nash equilibrium. d) Now suppose that anew central bank governor is appointed who cares a lot about inflation and relatively little aboutunemployment. Redraw your graph twice, once showing what happens if private agents know the newgovernor's preferences and again showing what happens if private agents mistakenly believe that thenew governor has the same preferences as the old governor. Explain clearly why the outcome is differentin the two cases.Assume that the cconomy of Country X his an actual unemployment rate of 7%, a natural rate of unemployment of 5%, and an inflation rate of 3%. Using the numerical values given above, draw a correctly labeled graph of the short-run and long-run Phillips curves. Label the current short-run equilibrium as point B. Plot the numerical values above onthe graph. Assume that the government of Country X takes no policy action to reduce unemployment. In the long run, will each of the following shill to the right, shift to the left, or remain the same? (i) Short-run aggregate supply curve. Explain. (ii) Long-run Phillips curve Identify a fiscal policy action that could be used to reduce the unemployment rate in the short run. Draw a correctly labeled graph of aggregate demand and short-run aggregate supply, and show the impact on the equilibrium price level and real gross domestic product (GDP) of the fiscal policy action identified1. An economy has the following equation for the Phillips Curve: π = Eπ − 0.5(u − 6)People form expectations of inflation by taking a weighted average of the previous two years of inflation: Okun’s law for this economy is: Eπ = 0.7π−1 + 0.3π−2 (Y −Y−1)/(Y-1)=3.0−2.0(u−u−1) Th economy begins at its natural rate of unemployment with a stable inflation rate of 5 percent. Graph the short-run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment that this economy faces. Label the point where the economy begins as A. (Be sure to give numerical values for point A.) A fall in aggregate demand leads to a recession, causing the unemployment rate to rise 4 percentage points above its natural rate. On your graph in part (b), label the point the economy experiences that year as point B.(Be sure to give numerical values.) Unemployment remains at this high level for two years (the initial year described in part (c) and one more), after which it returns to its natural rate. Create a table showing…
- Only typed answer Consider the Phillips curve shown here. In region B: a. inflation equals expected inflation. b. inflation rises above expected inflation. c. there is insufficient demand. d. the output gap is negative.Using the Frieman-Phelps expectations-augmented Phillips curve, if actual and expected inflationare equal to each other, thenA)workers are correctly forecasting inflation and the economy is in long run equilibriumB)the policymaker needs to pursue expansionary policy to create more output.C)in the long run workers will adjust their expectations, resulting in a business cycle in the longrun.D)the economy is in an expansion above the natural rate of output.Suppose πt = πt−1 −2(ut −0.04) is the Phillips Curve equation in the economy. Answer thefollowing questions.a. What is the natural rate of unemployment?b. Graph the short run and the long run relationship between inflation and unemployment.c. How much cyclical unemployment is necessary to reduce inflation by 10 percentagepoint?d. The inflation is running at 12 percent. The Central Bank wants to reduce it to 9 percent.Give two scenarios that will achieve the goal.
