2. Determine the course of action that has the highest expected payoff for the decision tree below! .....…... $1.0* $1.3 Do nothing Expand $1.3 $1.5 Do nothing Expand $1.6 Build $1.8 $0.7 Do nothing $1.5 $1.0 $1.6 $1.6 $1.5 $1.7 ($0.9) $1.4 $1.0 $1.0 $1.1 $0.9 $2.4 Subcontract Expand Build Small demand (.4) Medium demand (.5) • Net present value in millions Large demand (.1) Small demand (4) Medium demand (.5) Large demand (.1) Medium demand (.5) Large demand (.1) Small demand (4) Other use #1 Other use #2 Do nothing Subcontract Build Do nothing Other use #1 Other use #2 Do nothing Other use #1 Other use #2

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 21P
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2. Determine the course of action that has the highest expected payoff for the decision tree below!
$1.0*
$1.3
Do nothing
Medium demand (.5)
Large demand (.1)
Small demand (.4)
Expand
$1.3
Do nothing
Expand
$1.5
$1.6
Build
$1.8
Do nothing
Other use #1
$0.7
$1.5
Small demand (.4)
Medium demand (.5)
Other use #2
$1.0
Expand
$1.6
Large demand (. 1)
Do nothing
Subcontract
$1.6
$1.5
Build
$1.7
Do nothing
Other use #1
($0.9)
$1.4
Small demand (.4)
Medium demand (.5)
Other use #2
$1.0
Do nothing
Other use #1
$1.0
Large demand (.1)
$1.1
Other use #2
$0.9
* Net present value in millions
$2.4
Subcontract
Build
Transcribed Image Text:2. Determine the course of action that has the highest expected payoff for the decision tree below! $1.0* $1.3 Do nothing Medium demand (.5) Large demand (.1) Small demand (.4) Expand $1.3 Do nothing Expand $1.5 $1.6 Build $1.8 Do nothing Other use #1 $0.7 $1.5 Small demand (.4) Medium demand (.5) Other use #2 $1.0 Expand $1.6 Large demand (. 1) Do nothing Subcontract $1.6 $1.5 Build $1.7 Do nothing Other use #1 ($0.9) $1.4 Small demand (.4) Medium demand (.5) Other use #2 $1.0 Do nothing Other use #1 $1.0 Large demand (.1) $1.1 Other use #2 $0.9 * Net present value in millions $2.4 Subcontract Build
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