A challenge we run into when forecasting future stock returns is that stock returns compound. So, when using historical averages to forecast the future, we need to average together the arithmetic and geometric average returns using Blume's Formula: R(T) = 1 Geo Avg + NT Arith Avg N- N-1 In this formula, N is the number of historical annual returns you are using to calculate your averages and T is the number of future annual returns you are forecasting. Suppose you gather the following prices for a stock in order to calculate the last 10 (N = 10) annual returns. The stock does not pay dividends. Time 0 1 calculate the last 10 (N=10) annual returns. The stock does not pay dividends. Time 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Price $23.16 $32.81 10 Price $23.16 $32.81 $33.63 $36.83 $41.95 $41.04 $33.83 $37.45 $30.56 $29.90 $47.93 Using Blume's formula, what is the expected return per year for the next 4 years (T = 4)? Enter your answer as a percentage, rounded to the nearest 0.0001. For example, for 0.1234567, enter 12.3457.

EBK CONTEMPORARY FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
14th Edition
ISBN:9781337514835
Author:MOYER
Publisher:MOYER
Chapter8: Analysis Of Risk And Return
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 17P
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A challenge we run into when forecasting future stock returns is
that stock returns compound. So, when using historical
averages to forecast the future, we need to average together
the arithmetic and geometric average returns using Blume's
Formula:
R(T) = T GeoAvg + NT Arith Avg
N-1
In this formula, N is the number of historical annual returns you
are using to calculate your averages and T is the number of
future annual returns you are forecasting.
Suppose you gather the following prices for a stock in order to
calculate the last 10 (N = 10) annual returns. The stock does not
pay dividends.
Time
0
1
Time
0
calculate the last 10 (N=10) annual returns. The stock does not
pay dividends.
1
2
3
4
5
10
6
.
7
8
9
10
Price
$23.16
$32.81
Price
$23.16
$32.81
$33.63
$36.83
$41.95
$41.04
$33.83
$37.45
$30.56
$29.90
$47.93
Using Blume's formula, what is the expected return per year for
the next 4 years (T = 4)?
Enter your answer as a percentage, rounded to the nearest 0.0001.
For example, for 0.1234567, enter 12.3457.
Transcribed Image Text:A challenge we run into when forecasting future stock returns is that stock returns compound. So, when using historical averages to forecast the future, we need to average together the arithmetic and geometric average returns using Blume's Formula: R(T) = T GeoAvg + NT Arith Avg N-1 In this formula, N is the number of historical annual returns you are using to calculate your averages and T is the number of future annual returns you are forecasting. Suppose you gather the following prices for a stock in order to calculate the last 10 (N = 10) annual returns. The stock does not pay dividends. Time 0 1 Time 0 calculate the last 10 (N=10) annual returns. The stock does not pay dividends. 1 2 3 4 5 10 6 . 7 8 9 10 Price $23.16 $32.81 Price $23.16 $32.81 $33.63 $36.83 $41.95 $41.04 $33.83 $37.45 $30.56 $29.90 $47.93 Using Blume's formula, what is the expected return per year for the next 4 years (T = 4)? Enter your answer as a percentage, rounded to the nearest 0.0001. For example, for 0.1234567, enter 12.3457.
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