A company considering water flooding plan for one its small oil field, the chances of success is as flows: Present value dollars of Probability water flooding, 106 0.3 30 0.2 50 0.4 80 0.1 The cost would be 15 MM dollars. The company has already committed 30 MM to attractive ventures whose outcome is still to be decided, and there remains 10 MM dollars of venture capitol available. Should the company make the investment? Management will take a 10% risk? 0

A company considering water flooding plan for one its small oil field, the chances of success is as flows: Present value dollars of Probability water flooding, 106 0.3 30 0.2 50 0.4 80 0.1 The cost would be 15 MM dollars. The company has already committed 30 MM to attractive ventures whose outcome is still to be decided, and there remains 10 MM dollars of venture capitol available. Should the company make the investment? Management will take a 10% risk? 0

EBK CONTEMPORARY FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT

14th Edition

ISBN:9781337514835

Author:MOYER

Publisher:MOYER

Chapter11: Capital Budgeting And Risk

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 9P

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Hemmingway, Inc. is considering a $5 million research and development (R&D) project. Profit projections appear promising, but Hemmingway’s president is concerned because the probability that the R&D project will be successful is only 0.50. Furthermore, the president knows that even if the project is successful, it will require that the company build a new production facility at a cost of $20 million in order to manufacture the product. If the facility is built, uncertainty remains about the demand and thus uncertainty about the profit that will be realized. Another option is that if the R&D project is successful, the company could sell the rights to the product for an estimated $25 million. Under this option, the company would not build the $20 million production facility. The decision tree follows. The profit projection for each outcome is shown at the end of the branches. For example, the revenue projection for the high demand outcome is $59 million. However, the cost of the R&D project ($5 million) and the cost of the production facility ($20 million) show the profit of this outcome to be $59 – $5 – $20 = $34 million. Branch probabilities are also shown for the chance events. Analyze the decision tree to determine whether the company should undertake the R&D project. If it does, and if the R&D project is successful, what should the company do? What is the expected value of your strategy? What must the selling price be for the company to consider selling the rights to the product? Develop a risk profile for the optimal strategy.
Redbird Company is considering a project with an initial investment of $265,000 in new equipment that will yield annual net cash flows of $45,800 each year over its seven-year life. The companys minimum required rate of return is 8%. What is the internal rate of return? Should Redbird accept the project based on IRR?
Gina Ripley, president of Dearing Company, is considering the purchase of a computer-aided manufacturing system. The annual net cash benefits and savings associated with the system are described as follows: The system will cost 9,000,000 and last 10 years. The companys cost of capital is 12 percent. Required: 1. Calculate the payback period for the system. Assume that the company has a policy of only accepting projects with a payback of five years or less. Would the system be acquired? 2. Calculate the NPV and IRR for the project. Should the system be purchasedeven if it does not meet the payback criterion? 3. The project manager reviewed the projected cash flows and pointed out that two items had been missed. First, the system would have a salvage value, net of any tax effects, of 1,000,000 at the end of 10 years. Second, the increased quality and delivery performance would allow the company to increase its market share by 20 percent. This would produce an additional annual net benefit of 300,000. Recalculate the payback period, NPV, and IRR given this new information. (For the IRR computation, initially ignore salvage value.) Does the decision change? Suppose that the salvage value is only half what is projected. Does this make a difference in the outcome? Does salvage value have any real bearing on the companys decision?
The J.R. Ryland Computer Company is considering a plant expansion to enable the company to begin production of a new computer product. The companys president must determine whether to make the expansion a medium- or large-scale project. Demand for the new product is uncertain, which for planning purposes may be low demand, medium demand, or high demand. The probability estimates for demand are 0.20, 0.50, and 0.30, respectively. Letting x and y indicate the annual profit in thousands of dollars, the firms planners developed the following profit forecasts for the medium-and large-scale expansion projects. a. Compute the expected value for the profit associated with the two expansion alternatives. Which decision is preferred for the objective of maximizing the expected profit? b. Compute the variance for the profit associated with the two expansion alternatives. Which decision is preferred for the objective of minimizing the risk or uncertainty?
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The Ulmer Uranium Company is deciding whether or not to open a strip mine whose net cost is $4.4 million. Net cash inflows are expected to be $27.7 million, all coming at the end of Year 1. The land must be returned to its natural state at a cost of $25 million, payable at the end of Year 2. Plot the project’s NPV profile. Should the project be accepted if r = 8%? If r = 14%? Explain your reasoning. Can you think of some other capital budgeting situations in which negative cash flows during or at the end of the project’s life might lead to multiple IRRs? What is the project’s MIRR at r = 8%? At r = 14%? Does the MIRR method lead to the same accept-reject decision as the NPV method?
The management of Ryland International Is considering Investing in a new facility and the following cash flows are expected to result from the investment: A. What Is the payback period of this uneven cash flow? B. Does your answer change if year 6s cash inflow changes to $920,000?
The Rodriguez Company is considering an average-risk investment in a mineral water spring project that has an initial after-tax cost of 170,000. The project will produce 1,000 cases of mineral water per year indefinitely, starting at Year 1. The Year-1 sales price will be 138 per case, and the Year-1 cost per case will be 105. The firm is taxed at a rate of 25%. Both prices and costs are expected to rise after Year 1 at a rate of 6% per year due to inflation. The firm uses only equity, and it has a cost of capital of 15%. Assume that cash flows consist only of after-tax profits because the spring has an indefinite life and will not be depreciated. a. What is the present value of future cash flows? (Hint: The project is a growing perpetuity, so you must use the constant growth formula to find its NPV.) What is the NPV? b. Suppose that the company had forgotten to include future inflation. What would they have incorrectly calculated as the projects NPV?
Celestial Crane Cosmetics is analyzing a project that requires an initial investment of $3,225,000. The project's expected cash flows are: Year Cash Flow Year 1 $375,000 Year 2 -125,000 Year 3 500,000 Year 4 400,000 If the company's WACC is 8% and the project has the same risk as the firm's average project, what is the project's modified internal rate of return (MIRR)? Should you accept or reject this project?