A manufacturing firm plans to expand the current distribution network. The manager of the firm considers whether to extend a long-term contract with the current company who has done business with the firm in the past and whose distribution system reaches 60% of all potential customers. The second option is to sign a one-year contract with a new distribution company. The new company used to reach only 30% of customers, but they claim that they have invested heavily over the past year in distribution resources and now expect to be able to reach 80% of customers. The manager is not that sure about the new company’s claim and give them about 50% of trust. If the new distributor still covers only 30% in year 1, however, the company can switch back to the familiar old distributor. The manager of the firm wants to develop two-scenario plans: 3-year and 10-year planning horizon. Which distributor should the manager choose for each plan? Show your analysis

A manufacturing firm plans to expand the current distribution network. The manager of the firm considers whether to extend a long-term contract with the current company who has done business with the firm in the past and whose distribution system reaches 60% of all potential customers. The second option is to sign a one-year contract with a new distribution company. The new company used to reach only 30% of customers, but they claim that they have invested heavily over the past year in distribution resources and now expect to be able to reach 80% of customers. The manager is not that sure about the new company’s claim and give them about 50% of trust. If the new distributor still covers only 30% in year 1, however, the company can switch back to the familiar old distributor. The manager of the firm wants to develop two-scenario plans: 3-year and 10-year planning horizon. Which distributor should the manager choose for each plan? Show your analysis

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 35P

See similar textbooks

Similar questions

The Tinkan Company produces one-pound cans for the Canadian salmon industry. Each year the salmon spawn during a 24-hour period and must be canned immediately. Tinkan has the following agreement with the salmon industry. The company can deliver as many cans as it chooses. Then the salmon are caught. For each can by which Tinkan falls short of the salmon industrys needs, the company pays the industry a 2 penalty. Cans cost Tinkan 1 to produce and are sold by Tinkan for 2 per can. If any cans are left over, they are returned to Tinkan and the company reimburses the industry 2 for each extra can. These extra cans are put in storage for next year. Each year a can is held in storage, a carrying cost equal to 20% of the cans production cost is incurred. It is well known that the number of salmon harvested during a year is strongly related to the number of salmon harvested the previous year. In fact, using past data, Tinkan estimates that the harvest size in year t, Ht (measured in the number of cans required), is related to the harvest size in the previous year, Ht1, by the equation Ht = Ht1et where et is normally distributed with mean 1.02 and standard deviation 0.10. Tinkan plans to use the following production strategy. For some value of x, it produces enough cans at the beginning of year t to bring its inventory up to x+Ht, where Ht is the predicted harvest size in year t. Then it delivers these cans to the salmon industry. For example, if it uses x = 100,000, the predicted harvest size is 500,000 cans, and 80,000 cans are already in inventory, then Tinkan produces and delivers 520,000 cans. Given that the harvest size for the previous year was 550,000 cans, use simulation to help Tinkan develop a production strategy that maximizes its expected profit over the next 20 years. Assume that the company begins year 1 with an initial inventory of 300,000 cans.
A firm that plans to expand its product line must decide whether to build a small or a large facilityto produce the new products. If it builds a small facility and demand is low, the net present valueafter deducting for building costs will be $400,000. If demand is high, the firm can either maintainthe small facility or expand it. Expansion would have a net present value of $450,000, and maintaining the small facility would have a net present value of $50,000.If a large facility is built and demand is high, the estimated net present value is $800,000. If demandturns out to be low, the net present value will be – $10,000.The probability that demand will be high is estimated to be .60, and the probability of low demandis estimated to be .40.a. Analyze using a tree diagram.
A firm that plans to expand its product line must decide whether to build a small or a large facilityto produce the new products. If it builds a small facility and demand is low, the net present valueafter deducting for building costs will be $400,000. If demand is high, the firm can either maintainthe small facility or expand it. Expansion would have a net present value of $450,000, and maintaining the small facility would have a net present value of $50,000.If a large facility is built and demand is high, the estimated net present value is $800,000. If demandturns out to be low, the net present value will be – $10,000.The probability that demand will be high is estimated to be .60, and the probability of low demandis estimated to be .40. 1- Compute the EVPI 2- Determine the range over which each alternative would be best in terms of the value of P ( low demand )
In the following scenarios, you will be given a product and an event. Determine If there will be an increase OR decrease in either the supply OR demand, what happens to the price of the product, and what happens to the quantity bought and sold. The first two are answered for you as examples. EXAMPLE 1. Oil. New oil fields are discovered by new companies in Canada EX 1 ANSWER Supply increases, price decreases, quantities increase EXAMPLE 2 Penguin merchandise. The Penguins play well and contend for a playoff spot. EX 2 ANSWER Demand increases, price increases, quantities decrease 1. Yankees tickets. The Yankees built a new stadium that has 10,000 fewer seats. 2. Spam (Inferior good) . People’s incomes increase. 3. Foreign cars. The government places an excise tax on all foreign cars produced in the U.S. 4. Jelly.…
A store is evaluating two options: expand to a new location stay and do nothing in current place for the next five years The decision process includes the following: Moving to the new site: would cost $500,000 annual returns with strong growth = $3 million; with weak growth = $2 million Doing nothing: annual returns with strong growth = $2 million; with weak growth = $1.5 million Strong growth has a 70% probability and operating costs for all other options are equal. Draw a decision tree of the problem and determine the best solution with highest expected value.
In the following scenarios, you will be given a product and an event. Determine If there will be an increase OR decrease in either the supply OR demand, what happens to the price of the product, and what happens to the quantity bought and sold. The first two are answered for you as examples. EXAMPLE! 1 New oil fields are discovered by new companies in Canada EX 1 ANSWER Supply increases, price decreases, quantities increase EXAMPLE! 2 Penguin merchandise. The Penguins play well and contend for a playoff spot. EX 2 ANSWER Demand increases, price increases, quantities decrease 1. Beef. The price of chicken suddenly drops. 2. Newly constructed houses. The price of lumber doubles. 3. The government places a 30% excise tax on alcohol. 4. Peanut butter cookies. The price of chocolate chip cookies increases. 5. Pepsi.…
Management of AG Travel and Tour has identified two groups of individuals that would be interested in the vacation package consisting of room and board and/or entertainment. The maximum amount that group 1 is willing to pay for room and board is GHC 2500 and for entertainment is GHC 500. For group 2, the maximum amount they are willing to pay for room and board is GHC 1800 and for entertainment is GHC 750. Although AG Travel and Tour is not able to identify members of either group, it does know that each group values the components of the package differently. Assuming there are an equal number of members in each group and that the total membership in each group is a single individual. If the marginal cost of providing the service (room and board and/or entertainment) to each group is GHC 1000. What will be the profit for AG Travel and Tour in the case of (iii) above?
A local real estate investor in Kingston is considering three alternative investments: a motel, a restaurant, or a theater. Profits from the motel or restaurant will be affected by the availability of gasoline and the number of tourists; profits from the theater will be relatively stable under any conditions. The following payoff table shows the profit or loss that could result from each investment: Real Estate Investor Payoff Table Payoffs are Profits States of Nature (Gasoline Availability) Decision Alternatives Shortage Stable Supply Surplus Motel $–8,000 $15,000 $22,000 Restaurant $2,000 $8,000 $6,000 Theater $6,000 $6,000 $5,000 Which option should the real estate investor choose if he uses the LaPlace criterion? Using…
Fenton and Farrah Friendly, husband-and-wife car dealers, are soon going to open a new dealership. They have three offers: from a foreign compact car company, from a U.S. producer of full-sized cars, and from a truck company. The success of each type of dealership will depend on how much gasoline is going to be available during the next few years. The profit from each type of dealership, given the availability of gas, is shown in the following payoff table: Dealership Gasoline Availability Shortage .6 Surplus .4 Compact cars 300,000 150,000 Full-sized cars -100,000 600,000 Trucks 120,000 170,000 a)Determine which type of dealership the couple should purchase. The Friendlys are considering hiring a petroleum analyst to determine the future availability of gasoline. The analyst will report that either a shortage or a surplus will occur. The probability that the analyst will indicate a shortage, given that a shortage actually occurs is .90; the…
A manager is trying to decide whether to build a small, medium, or large facility. Demand can be low, average, or high, with the estimated probabilities being 0.40, 0.35, and 0.25, respectively. A small facility is expected to earn an after-tax net present value of just $13,000 if demand is low. If demand is average, the small facility is expected to earn $15,000; it can be increased to medium size to earn a net present value of $30,000. If demand is high, the small facility is expected to earn $25,000 and can be expanded to medium size to earn $50,000 or to large size to earn $100,000. A medium-sized facility is expected to lose an estimated $50,000 if demand is low and earn $100,000 if demand is average. If demand is high, the medium-sized facility is expected to earn a net present value of $125,000; it can be expanded to a large size for a net payoff of $175,000. If a large facility is built and demand is high, earnings are expected to be $180,000. If demand is average for the large…
Johnson Chemicals is considering two options for itssupplier portfolio. Option 1 uses two local suppliers. Each has a “unique-event” risk of 5%, and the probability of a “super-event” that would disable both at the same time is estimated to be 1.5%. Option 2 uses two suppliers located in different countries.Each has a “unique-event” risk of 13%, and the probability of a “super-event” that would disable both at the same time is esti-mated to be 0.2%. a) What is the probability that both suppliers will be disruptedusing option 1?b) What is the probability that both suppliers will be disruptedusing option 2?c) Which option would provide the lowest risk of a total shutdown?
Place-Plus, a real estate development firm, is considering several alternative development projects. These include building and leasing an office park, purchasing a parcel of land, and building an office building to rent, buying and leasing a warehouse, building a strip mall, and building and selling condominiums. The financial success of these projects depends on interest rate movement in the next 5 years. The various development projects and their 5-year financial return (in €1,000,000s) given that interest rates will decline, remain stable, or increase, are shown in the following image of the payoff table: a) Place-Plus is dissatisfied with the economist’s estimate of the probabilities of future interest rate movement, so it is considering having a financial consulting firm provide a report on future interest rates. The consulting firm can cite a track record which shows that 80% of the time when interest rates declined, it had predicted they would, whereas 10% of the time when…