A global economist hired by Telecomp, the U.S.-basedcomputer manufacturer in Problem S1-1, estimates that the probability that the economic and political climate over-seas and in Mexico will decline during the next five years is 0.30, the probability that it will remain approximatelythe same is 0.40, and the probability that it will improve is 0.30. Determine the best country to construct the new facil-ity in and the expected value of perfect information.
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A global economist hired by Telecomp, the U.S.-based
computer manufacturer in Problem S1-1, estimates that the
probability that the economic and political climate over-
seas and in Mexico will decline during the next five years
is 0.30, the probability that it will remain approximately
the same is 0.40, and the probability that it will improve is
0.30. Determine the best country to construct the new facil-
ity in and the expected value of perfect information.
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- Dwayne Whitten, president of Whitten Industries, is considering whether to build a manufacturing plant in north Texas. His decision is summarized in the following table: Alternatives Favorable Market Unfavorable Market Build large plant $400,000 −$300,000 Build small plant $120,000 −$15,000 Don't Build $0 $0 Market Probability 0.40 0.60 a) The correct decision tree for Dwayne is shown in Figure ____ (all payoffs are in thousands). b) To maximize the return, Dwayne's decision should be to ______ . c) For Dwayne, the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) = $___________ (enter your answer as a whole numFollowing is the payoff table for the Pittsburgh Development Corporation (PDC) Condominium Project. Amounts are in millions of dollars. State of Nature Decision Alternative Strong Demand S1 Weak Demand S2 Small complex, d1 8 7 Medium complex, d2 14 5 Large complex, d3 20 -9 Suppose PDC is optimistic about the potential for the luxury high-rise condominium complex and that this optimism leads to an initial subjective probability assessment of 0.8 that demand will be strong (S1) and a corresponding probability of 0.2 that demand will be weak (S2). Assume the decision alternative to build the large condominium complex was found to be optimal using the expected value approach. Also, a sensitivity analysis was conducted for the payoffs associated with this decision alternative. It was found that the large complex remained optimal as long as the payoff for the strong demand was greater than or equal to $17.5 million and as long as the payoff for…Johnson Chemicals is considering two options for itssupplier portfolio. Option 1 uses two local suppliers. Each has a “unique-event” risk of 5%, and the probability of a “super-event” that would disable both at the same time is estimated to be 1.5%. Option 2 uses two suppliers located in different countries.Each has a “unique-event” risk of 13%, and the probability of a “super-event” that would disable both at the same time is esti-mated to be 0.2%. a) What is the probability that both suppliers will be disruptedusing option 1?b) What is the probability that both suppliers will be disruptedusing option 2?c) Which option would provide the lowest risk of a total shutdown?
- Johnson Chemicals is considering two options for its supplier portfolio. Option 1 uses two local suppliers. Each has a “unique-event” risk of 5%, and the probability of a “superevent” that would disable both at the same time is estimated to be 1.5%. Option 2 uses two suppliers located in different countries. Each has a “unique-event” risk of 13%, and the probability of a“super-event” that would disable both at the same time is estimatedto be 0.2%. a) What is the probability that both suppliers will be disruptedusing option 1?b) What is the probability that both suppliers will be disruptedusing option 2?c) Which option would provide the lowest risk of a total shutdown?1. Kirsten is trying to decide where to go for her well-earned vacation. She would like to camp, but if the weather is bad, she will have to go to a motel. Given the costs and probabilities of bad weather given below, which destination should she choose? Camping cost Motel cost Probability of bad weather Nevada $21.2 $80.9 0.2 Oregon $15.9 $84.6 0.4 California $30 $95 0.1 a. California, because its EMV = $33.14 b. Nevada, because its EMV = $33.14 c. California, because its EMV = $36.5 d. Any of the 3 choices. e. Oregon, because its EMV = $43.38 f. Nevada, because its EMV = $43.38 g. None of the 3 choices. h. Oregon, because its EMV is $36.50.The director of career advising at Orange Community College wants to use decision analysis to provide information to help students decide which 2-year degree program they should pursue. The director has set up the following payoff table for six of the most popular and successful degree programs at OCC that shows the estimated 5-year gross income ($) from each degree for four future economic conditions: Determine the best degree program in terms of projected income, using the following decision criteria: a. Maximax b. Maximin c. Equal likelihood
- The director of career advising at Grand Valley Commu-nity College wants to use decision analysis to provide in-formation to help students decide which two-year degree program they should pursue. The director has set up the following payoff table for six of the most popular and suc-cessful degree programs at GVCC that shows the estimated five-year gross income ($) from each degree for four futureeconomic conditions:Determine the best degree program in terms of projectedincome, using the following decision criteria:a. Maximaxb. Maximinc. Equal likelihoodd. Hurwicz ( .25) Economic ConditionsDegree Program Recession Average Good RobustGraphic Design 115,000 155,000 190,000 220,000Nursing 140,000 175,000 210,000 225,000Real Estate 95,000 135,000 230,000 350,000Medical Technology 120,000 180,000 210,000 270,000Culinary Technology 85,000 125,000 180,000 290,000Computer InformationTechnology 125,000 160,000 200,000 260,000A payoff table is given as: S1 S2 S3 D1 250 750 500 D2 300 -250 1200 D3 500 500 600 (a) What choice should be made by the optimistic decision maker? (b) What choice should be made by the conservative decision maker? (c) What decision should be made under minimal regret? (d) If the probabilities of d1, d2, and d3 are .2, .5, and .3, respectively, then what choice should be made under expected value?Dillon DeMarco is considering opening a small Italian bakery in the nearby mall, close to the Italian section of the city. He has chosen a good location where he believes there will be interest in the bakery. However, Dillon is unsure how much interest there will be and is trying to decide whether to open a small, medium or large shop. It really depends on what the economy is like in the next year whether people are able to spend their money on his Italian delicacies. Based on the latest financial reports, there is a 20%20% probability for a strong economy, 30%30% probability for an average economy and 50%50% probability for a bad economy. The potential payoffs for a small, medium or large shop for a given year are shown in the decision table. Decision Table State of Nature Alternatives Strong Economy Average Economy Bad Economy Small Shop 20,00020,000 18,00018,000 30,00030,000 Medium Shop 45,00045,000 50,00050,000 45,00045,000 Large Shop 85,00085,000 64,00064,000…
- A local real estate investor in Montego Bay is considering three alternative investments: a motel,a restaurant, or a theatre. Profits from the motel or restaurant will be affected by the availabilityof gasoline and the number of tourists; profits from the theatre will be relatively stable under anyconditions. The following payoff table shows the profit or loss that could result from eachinvestment: Real Estate Investor Payoff Table Payoffs are Profits States of Nature (Gasoline Availability)Decision Alternatives Shortage Stable Supply SurplusMotel $–8,000 $15,000 $20,000Restaurant $2,000 $8,000 $6,000Theater $6,000 $6,000 $5,000 A. Which option should the real estate investor choose if he uses the LaPlace criterion? B. Using a…Carlisle Tire and Rubber, Inc., is considering expanding production to meet potential increases in the demand for one of its tire products. Carlisle’s alternatives are to construct a new plant, expand the existing plant, or do nothing in the short run. The market for this particular tire product may expand, remain stable, or contract. Carlisle’s marketing department estimates the probabilities of these market outcomes to be 0.25, 0.35, and 0.40, respectively. The file P06_31.xlsx (picture of given excel file is attached) contains Carlisle’s payoffs and costs for the various combinations of decisions and outcomes. Identify the strategy that maximizes this tire manufacturer’s expected profit. Perform a sensitivity analysis on the optimal decision, letting each of the monetary inputs vary one at a time plus or minus 10% from its base value, and summarize your findings. Which of the inputs appears to have the largest effect on the best solution?Microcomp is a U.S.-based manufacturer of personal computers. It is planning to build a new manufacturing and distribution facility in either South Korea, China, Taiwan, the Philippines, or Mexico. It will take approximately 5 years to build the necessary infrastructure (roads, etc.), construct the new facility, and put it into operation. The eventual cost of the facility will differ between countries and will even vary within countries depending on the financial, labor, and political climate, including monetary exchange rates. The company has estimated the facility cost (in $1,000,000s) in each country under three different future economic and political climates, as follows: Determine the best decision, using the following decision criteria. a. Minimin b. Minimax