A plant manager wants to know how much he should be willing to pay for perfect market research. Currently there are two states of nature facing his decision to expand or do nothing. Under favorable market conditions, the manager would make $100,000 for the large plant and $5,000 for the small plant. Under unfavorable market conditions, the large plant would lose $50,000 and the small plant would make $0. If the two states of nature are equally likely, how much should he pay for perfect information? a. $0 b. $50,000 c. $100,000 d. $25,000
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- Play Things is developing a new Lady Gaga doll. The company has made the following assumptions: The doll will sell for a random number of years from 1 to 10. Each of these 10 possibilities is equally likely. At the beginning of year 1, the potential market for the doll is two million. The potential market grows by an average of 4% per year. The company is 95% sure that the growth in the potential market during any year will be between 2.5% and 5.5%. It uses a normal distribution to model this. The company believes its share of the potential market during year 1 will be at worst 30%, most likely 50%, and at best 60%. It uses a triangular distribution to model this. The variable cost of producing a doll during year 1 has a triangular distribution with parameters 15, 17, and 20. The current selling price is 45. Each year, the variable cost of producing the doll will increase by an amount that is triangularly distributed with parameters 2.5%, 3%, and 3.5%. You can assume that once this change is generated, it will be the same for each year. You can also assume that the company will change its selling price by the same percentage each year. The fixed cost of developing the doll (which is incurred right away, at time 0) has a triangular distribution with parameters 5 million, 7.5 million, and 12 million. Right now there is one competitor in the market. During each year that begins with four or fewer competitors, there is a 25% chance that a new competitor will enter the market. Year t sales (for t 1) are determined as follows. Suppose that at the end of year t 1, n competitors are present (including Play Things). Then during year t, a fraction 0.9 0.1n of the company's loyal customers (last year's purchasers) will buy a doll from Play Things this year, and a fraction 0.2 0.04n of customers currently in the market ho did not purchase a doll last year will purchase a doll from Play Things this year. Adding these two provides the mean sales for this year. Then the actual sales this year is normally distributed with this mean and standard deviation equal to 7.5% of the mean. a. Use @RISK to estimate the expected NPV of this project. b. Use the percentiles in @ RISKs output to find an interval such that you are 95% certain that the companys actual NPV will be within this interval.It costs a pharmaceutical company 75,000 to produce a 1000-pound batch of a drug. The average yield from a batch is unknown but the best case is 90% yield (that is, 900 pounds of good drug will be produced), the most likely case is 85% yield, and the worst case is 70% yield. The annual demand for the drug is unknown, with the best case being 20,000 pounds, the most likely case 17,500 pounds, and the worst case 10,000 pounds. The drug sells for 125 per pound and leftover amounts of the drug can be sold for 30 per pound. To maximize annual expected profit, how many batches of the drug should the company produce? You can assume that it will produce the batches only once, before demand for the drug is known.Eloise runs a small business called GraphX, which creates one-of-a-kind holographic stickers for well-known rock bands. Currently, Eloise is glad that none of her competitors have figured out how to mimic her way of creating holographic effects. Eloise currently has a _____________ that she hopes is ___________. A.Competitive advantage; sustainable B.Profit model; strategic C.Tactical plan; ethical D.Strategic plan; semi-permanent E.Competitive advantage; innovative F.Profit model; innovative
- A firm that plans to expand its product line must decide whether to build a small or a large facilityto produce the new products. If it builds a small facility and demand is low, the net present valueafter deducting for building costs will be $400,000. If demand is high, the firm can either maintainthe small facility or expand it. Expansion would have a net present value of $450,000, and maintaining the small facility would have a net present value of $50,000.If a large facility is built and demand is high, the estimated net present value is $800,000. If demandturns out to be low, the net present value will be – $10,000.The probability that demand will be high is estimated to be .60, and the probability of low demandis estimated to be .40.a. Analyze using a tree diagram.A firm that plans to expand its product line must decide whether to build a small or a large facilityto produce the new products. If it builds a small facility and demand is low, the net present valueafter deducting for building costs will be $400,000. If demand is high, the firm can either maintainthe small facility or expand it. Expansion would have a net present value of $450,000, and maintaining the small facility would have a net present value of $50,000.If a large facility is built and demand is high, the estimated net present value is $800,000. If demandturns out to be low, the net present value will be – $10,000.The probability that demand will be high is estimated to be .60, and the probability of low demandis estimated to be .40. 1- Compute the EVPI 2- Determine the range over which each alternative would be best in terms of the value of P ( low demand )States of Nature Alternatives Very Favorable Market Average Market Unfavorable Market Build new plant $300,000 $210,000 −$280,000 Subcontract $160,000 $100,000 −$15,000 Overtime $120,000 $70,000 −$8,000 Do Nothing $0 $0 $0 Using the decision making under uncertainty with the criterion of Maximax the appropriate decision will be... (Do Nothing) (Build new plant) (Overtime) (Subcontract) The value of the return under this decision is Using the decision making under uncertainty with the criterion of Maximin the appropriate decision will be... (Subcontract) (Overtime) (Do Nothing) (Build new plant) The value of the return under this decision is Using the decision making under uncertainty with the criterion of Equally Likely the appropriate decision will be (Do Nothing) (Subcontract) (Build new plant) (Overtime) The value of the return under this decision is
- In the environment of increased competition, a fitness club executive is considering the purchase of additional equipment. They are choosing between Acme, Standard and High Pro. With new equipment they can attract new clients and increase their overall profits. The profits are dependent on the markets demand for the new equipment and brand name recognition. If they go with the Acme equipment, there profit would be $375,000 in a favorable market or -$125,000 in an unfavorable market. If they go with the Standard equipment, there profit would be $250,000 in a favorable market or -$95,000 in an unfavorable market. If they go with the High Pro equipment, there profit would be $175,000 in a favorable market or -$50,000 in an unfavorable market. a) Create a decision table and a decision tree. b) If the executive is an optimistic decision maker, which alternative will he choose? What is the payoff? c) If the executive is a pessimistic decision maker, which alternative will he choose? What is…Refer to Problems 1 and 2. Construct a graph that will enable you to perform sensitivity analysis on the problem. Over what range of P(high) would the alternative of doing nothing be best? Expand? Subcontract?A payoff table is given as s1 s2 s3 d1 250 450 500 d2 300 -250 900 d3 400 500 800 In each part of your answer, show the work you relied upon to reach your answer. What decision should be made using expected value, in which the probabilities are s1=.3, s2=.2, s3=.5? What decision should be made by the conservative decision-maker? What choice should be made using the Hurwicz method, in which the coefficient of optimism (or realism) is .6? (hint: ignore the middle state of nature in performing the calculation).
- Oilco must determine whether or not to drill for oil in the South China Sea. It costs $90,000 to drill for oil. If oil is found, the revenue is estimated to be $700,000. At present, Oilco believes there is a 40% chance that the field contains oil. Before drilling, Oilco can hire (for $20,000) a geologist to obtain more information about the likelihood that the field will contain oil. There is a 70% chance that the geologist will issue a favorable report and a 30% chance of an unfavorable report. Given a favorable report, there is an 60% chance that the field contains oil. Given an unfavorable report, there is a 10% chance that the field contains oil. Determine the optimal strategy, the expected profit, EVSI and EVPI. What is the Expected Value of Sample Information (EVSI)? Select one: a. EVSI = $41,000 b. EVSI = $42,000 c. EVSI = $26,000 d. EVSI = $20,000Sushow Inc. is a show company that makes an average of $400,000 from a good show and loses an average of $100,000 on a flop. Of the shows the network analyzes, 25% turn out to be hits and 75% turn out to be flops. For $40 000, a market research firm will ask an audience to watch a pilot of a likely show and give their views on whether the show will be a hit or a flop. If the show is actually going to be a success, there is a 90% chance that the market research firm will predict that the show will be a success. If the show is actually going to be a failure, there is an 80% chance that the market research firm will predict that the show will be a failure. will be a failure. a) Which decisions would maximize profits for Sushow? b) Calculate the VEIP c) Calculate the VEIE.If you want to invest in a project that cost $3.5 million. As we are unsure about the future demand, there is a 40% probability of high demand with a present value for the project $3 million. There is a 25% probability of moderate demand with a present value of $2.5 million. In addition, there is a 35% probability of low demand with a present value is $1.5 million. Draw a decision tree for this problem. What is the expected net present value of the business? Should you invest? Explain. Assume that you can expand the project by investing another $0.6 million after you learn the true future demand state. This would make the present value of the business $3.9 million in the high‐demand state, $3.5 million in the moderate demand state, and $1.80 million in the low demand state. Draw a decision tree to reflect the option to expand. Evaluate the alternatives. What is the net present value of the business if you consider the option to expand? How valuable is the option to expand?